Ah okay cool, a skeptic that has really engaged with the material. I won’t ask you your reasons because I’m sure I can find them on your substack, but I would love to know, do you have rough percentages for chance of catastrophic risk and x-risk from AI? You can restrict the estimate to the next century if that would help.
If you forced me to give numbers, I’d put the odds of catastrophe (~1 billion dead) at 1 in a thousand, and the odds of extinction at 1 in 500 thousand. Essentially, there are several plausible paths for a catastrophe to occur, but almost none for extinction. I don’t put too much stock in the actual numbers though, as I don’t think forecasting is actually useful for unbounded, long-term predictions.
Ah okay cool, a skeptic that has really engaged with the material. I won’t ask you your reasons because I’m sure I can find them on your substack, but I would love to know, do you have rough percentages for chance of catastrophic risk and x-risk from AI? You can restrict the estimate to the next century if that would help.
If you forced me to give numbers, I’d put the odds of catastrophe (~1 billion dead) at 1 in a thousand, and the odds of extinction at 1 in 500 thousand. Essentially, there are several plausible paths for a catastrophe to occur, but almost none for extinction. I don’t put too much stock in the actual numbers though, as I don’t think forecasting is actually useful for unbounded, long-term predictions.