If you forced me to give numbers, I’d put the odds of catastrophe (~1 billion dead) at 1 in a thousand, and the odds of extinction at 1 in 500 thousand. Essentially, there are several plausible paths for a catastrophe to occur, but almost none for extinction. I don’t put too much stock in the actual numbers though, as I don’t think forecasting is actually useful for unbounded, long-term predictions.
If you forced me to give numbers, I’d put the odds of catastrophe (~1 billion dead) at 1 in a thousand, and the odds of extinction at 1 in 500 thousand. Essentially, there are several plausible paths for a catastrophe to occur, but almost none for extinction. I don’t put too much stock in the actual numbers though, as I don’t think forecasting is actually useful for unbounded, long-term predictions.