I have to say this reads as authentic, but I can’t completely exclude the possibility that he is actually only saying all this to try and protect the reputation of effective altruism, because, if he were an effective altruist, that would be how he could ‘do the most good possible’. It’s also difficult to know how much credence to give to the words of a serial liar. What possible reason does he have to smear himself like this before an imminent court case?
Obviously I don’t think that’s likely… it’s just difficult to know how to judge this.
That would be some 7D chess from a broken man trying to avoid some serious personal legal consequences. Noble if true but it’s not! Also would suggest additional hubris around the ability to predict how anything will play in the public, which I guess seems more possible? Anyway, I think this take is probably not right?
This definitely crossed my mind. Assuming he expected it to be published and he’d guess how bad his responses would look, this would be one of the few rational explanations for his sudden repudiation of ethics.
But it also seems fairly likely that his mind is in a pretty chaotic place and his actions aren’t particularly rational, though.
SBF has demonstrated ineptitude in that FTX did fail. If this is a ploy, it’s possible this an inept one (an inept ploy can cause debate over whether it is a ploy) (so can a semicapable ploy).
Maybe SBF was immoral, maybe SBF could be a galaxy-brained EA who bit the St. Petersburg Paradox bullet (which bullet he bit on Tyler Cowen’s podcast), maybe something else. Because EA orgs don’t know what happened, that’s evidence that EA orgs should be preparing against both those things happening in the future. Only one cause was primary in reality, but there are nearby possible worlds where something else was the cause. (Posts have been made on this forum discouraging EAs from being galaxy-brained and immoral, but maybe that’s not enough, I don’t know. Maybe other things are happening in private that are cost-effective preventions).
I have to say this reads as authentic, but I can’t completely exclude the possibility that he is actually only saying all this to try and protect the reputation of effective altruism, because, if he were an effective altruist, that would be how he could ‘do the most good possible’. It’s also difficult to know how much credence to give to the words of a serial liar. What possible reason does he have to smear himself like this before an imminent court case?
Obviously I don’t think that’s likely… it’s just difficult to know how to judge this.
That would be some 7D chess from a broken man trying to avoid some serious personal legal consequences. Noble if true but it’s not! Also would suggest additional hubris around the ability to predict how anything will play in the public, which I guess seems more possible? Anyway, I think this take is probably not right?
This definitely crossed my mind. Assuming he expected it to be published and he’d guess how bad his responses would look, this would be one of the few rational explanations for his sudden repudiation of ethics.
But it also seems fairly likely that his mind is in a pretty chaotic place and his actions aren’t particularly rational, though.
SBF has demonstrated ineptitude in that FTX did fail. If this is a ploy, it’s possible this an inept one (an inept ploy can cause debate over whether it is a ploy) (so can a semicapable ploy).
Maybe SBF was immoral, maybe SBF could be a galaxy-brained EA who bit the St. Petersburg Paradox bullet (which bullet he bit on Tyler Cowen’s podcast), maybe something else. Because EA orgs don’t know what happened, that’s evidence that EA orgs should be preparing against both those things happening in the future. Only one cause was primary in reality, but there are nearby possible worlds where something else was the cause. (Posts have been made on this forum discouraging EAs from being galaxy-brained and immoral, but maybe that’s not enough, I don’t know. Maybe other things are happening in private that are cost-effective preventions).