So far, the effective altruist strategy for global poverty has followed a high-certainty, low-reward approach. GiveWell only looks at charities with a strong evidence base, such as bednets and cash transfers. But there’s also a low certainty, high reward approach: promote catch-up economic growth. Poverty is strongly correlated with economic development (urbanization, industrialization, etc), so encouraging development would have large effects on poverty. Whereas cash transfers have a large probability of a small effect, economic growth is a small probability of a large effect. (In general, we should diversify across high- and low-risk strategies.) In short, can we do “hits-based development”?
How can we affect growth? Tractability is the main problem for hits-based development, since GDP growth rates are notoriously difficult to change. However, there are a few promising options. One specific mechanism is to train developing-country economists, who can then work in developing-country governments and influence policy. Lant Pritchett gives the example of a think tank in India that influenced its liberalizing reforms, which preceded a large growth episode. This translates into a concrete goal: get X economists working in government in every developing country (where X might be proxied by the number in developed countries). Note that local experts are more likely than foreign World Bank advisors to positively affect growth, since they have local knowledge of culture, politics, law, etc.
I will focus on two instruments for achieving this goal: funding scholarships for developing-country scholars to get PhDs in economics, and funding think tanks and universities in developing countries. First, there are several funding sources within economics for developing-country students, such as Econometric Society scholarships, CEGA programs, and fee waivers at conferences. I will map out this funding space, contacting departments and conference organizers, and determine if more money could be used profitably. For example, are conference fees a bottleneck for developing-country researchers? Would earmarked scholarships make economics PhD programs accept more developing-country students? (We have to be careful in designing the funding mechanism, so that recipients don’t simply reduce funding elsewhere.) Next, I will organize fundraisers, so that donors have a ‘one-click’ opportunity to give money to hits-based development. (This might take the form of small recurring donations, or larger funding drives, or an endowment.) Then I will advertise these donation opportunities to effective altruists and others who want to promote hits-based development. (One potential large funder is the EA Global Health and Development Fund.)
My second approach is based on funding developing-country think tanks. Recently, IDRC led the Think Tank Initiative (TTI), which funded over 40 think tanks in 20 countries over 2009-2019. This program has not been renewed. My first step here would be to analyze the effectiveness of the TTI, and figure out whether it deserves to be renewed. While causal effects are hard to estimate, it seems reasonable to measure the number of think tanks, their progress under the program, and their effects on policy. To do this I will interview think tank employees, development experts, and the TTI organizers. Next I will determine what funding exists for renewing the program, as well as investigate whether a decentralized funding approach would work.
Related: “Some programs have received strong hints that they will be killed off entirely. The Oxford Policy Fellowship, a technical advisory program that embeds lawyers with governments that require support for two years, will have to withdraw fellows from their postings, according to Kari Selander, who founded the program.”
I’m a big fan of ideas like this. One of the things I think EAs can bring to charitable giving that is otherwise missing from the landscape is being risk-neutral, and thus willing to bet on high variance strategies that, taken as a whole in a portfolio, may have the same or hopefully higher expect returns compared to typical risk-averse charitable spending that tends to focus on things like making no money is wasted to the exclusion of taking necessary risks to realize benefits.
So far, the effective altruist strategy for global poverty has followed a high-certainty, low-reward approach. GiveWell only looks at charities with a strong evidence base, such as bednets and cash transfers. But there’s also a low certainty, high reward approach: promote catch-up economic growth. Poverty is strongly correlated with economic development (urbanization, industrialization, etc), so encouraging development would have large effects on poverty. Whereas cash transfers have a large probability of a small effect, economic growth is a small probability of a large effect. (In general, we should diversify across high- and low-risk strategies.) In short, can we do “hits-based development”?
How can we affect growth? Tractability is the main problem for hits-based development, since GDP growth rates are notoriously difficult to change. However, there are a few promising options. One specific mechanism is to train developing-country economists, who can then work in developing-country governments and influence policy. Lant Pritchett gives the example of a think tank in India that influenced its liberalizing reforms, which preceded a large growth episode. This translates into a concrete goal: get X economists working in government in every developing country (where X might be proxied by the number in developed countries). Note that local experts are more likely than foreign World Bank advisors to positively affect growth, since they have local knowledge of culture, politics, law, etc.
I will focus on two instruments for achieving this goal: funding scholarships for developing-country scholars to get PhDs in economics, and funding think tanks and universities in developing countries. First, there are several funding sources within economics for developing-country students, such as Econometric Society scholarships, CEGA programs, and fee waivers at conferences. I will map out this funding space, contacting departments and conference organizers, and determine if more money could be used profitably. For example, are conference fees a bottleneck for developing-country researchers? Would earmarked scholarships make economics PhD programs accept more developing-country students? (We have to be careful in designing the funding mechanism, so that recipients don’t simply reduce funding elsewhere.) Next, I will organize fundraisers, so that donors have a ‘one-click’ opportunity to give money to hits-based development. (This might take the form of small recurring donations, or larger funding drives, or an endowment.) Then I will advertise these donation opportunities to effective altruists and others who want to promote hits-based development. (One potential large funder is the EA Global Health and Development Fund.)
My second approach is based on funding developing-country think tanks. Recently, IDRC led the Think Tank Initiative (TTI), which funded over 40 think tanks in 20 countries over 2009-2019. This program has not been renewed. My first step here would be to analyze the effectiveness of the TTI, and figure out whether it deserves to be renewed. While causal effects are hard to estimate, it seems reasonable to measure the number of think tanks, their progress under the program, and their effects on policy. To do this I will interview think tank employees, development experts, and the TTI organizers. Next I will determine what funding exists for renewing the program, as well as investigate whether a decentralized funding approach would work.
Interesting.
Related: “Some programs have received strong hints that they will be killed off entirely. The Oxford Policy Fellowship, a technical advisory program that embeds lawyers with governments that require support for two years, will have to withdraw fellows from their postings, according to Kari Selander, who founded the program.”
https://www.devex.com/news/inside-the-uk-aid-cut-97771
https://www.policyfellowship.org/
I’m a big fan of ideas like this. One of the things I think EAs can bring to charitable giving that is otherwise missing from the landscape is being risk-neutral, and thus willing to bet on high variance strategies that, taken as a whole in a portfolio, may have the same or hopefully higher expect returns compared to typical risk-averse charitable spending that tends to focus on things like making no money is wasted to the exclusion of taking necessary risks to realize benefits.