I think it depends on the time horizon. If catch-up growth is not near-guaranteed in 100 years, I think waiting 100 years is probably better than spending now. If it is near-guaranteed, I think that the case for waiting 100 years ambiguous, but there is some longer period of time which would be better.
Full-length post here. Feel free to comment if you want or not comment if you don’t want.
I didn’t understand your argument about economic growth above. I was hoping you’d give an argument based on empirical data or forecasts rather than a purely theoretical argument. So, I wasn’t convinced by that. But I acknowledge there is high uncertainty with regard to future growth, and the wisdom of patient philanthropy partly depends on assumptions about growth.
I think it depends on the time horizon. If catch-up growth is not near-guaranteed in 100 years, I think waiting 100 years is probably better than spending now. If it is near-guaranteed, I think that the case for waiting 100 years ambiguous, but there is some longer period of time which would be better.
Full-length post here. Feel free to comment if you want or not comment if you don’t want.
I didn’t understand your argument about economic growth above. I was hoping you’d give an argument based on empirical data or forecasts rather than a purely theoretical argument. So, I wasn’t convinced by that. But I acknowledge there is high uncertainty with regard to future growth, and the wisdom of patient philanthropy partly depends on assumptions about growth.