Differing priorities and timelines (ie focus on TAI) among Ants
Also, the Anthropic situation seems like it’ll be different than Dustin in that the number of individual donors (“principals”) goes up a lot—which I’m guessing leads to more grants at smaller sizes, rather than OpenPhil’s (relatively) few, giant grants
To be clear, “10 new OpenPhils” is trying to convey like, a gestalt or a vibe; how I expect the feeling of working within EA causes to change, rather than a rigorous point estimate
Some factors that could raise giving estimates:
The 3:1 match
If “6%” is more like “15%”
Future growth of Anthropic stock
Differing priorities and timelines (ie focus on TAI) among Ants
Also, the Anthropic situation seems like it’ll be different than Dustin in that the number of individual donors (“principals”) goes up a lot—which I’m guessing leads to more grants at smaller sizes, rather than OpenPhil’s (relatively) few, giant grants
So, what is your actual math to get to 10x the size of Open Philanthropy?
To be clear, “10 new OpenPhils” is trying to convey like, a gestalt or a vibe; how I expect the feeling of working within EA causes to change, rather than a rigorous point estimate
Though, I’d be willing to bet at even odds, something like “yearly EA giving exceeds $10B by end of 2031”, which is about 10x the largest year per https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NWHb4nsnXRxDDFGLy/historical-ea-funding-data-2025-update.
2031 is far too far away for me to take an interest in a bet about this, but I proposed one for the end of 2026.