My expectation is that in the long run, this might be somewhat helpful, but the main reason I actually built this system is not so much to improve my forecasting performance but more to improve my forecasting efficiency. Instead of spending 2 or three hours per day haphazardly back and forth between questions, here I have a systematic, deliberate approach that I can follow every day and that allows me to accomplish at least as much, perhaps even more, in just a fraction of the time.
This seems like a really good system/way of thinking about things. I feel like I’m much more driven by interest/excitement than systematic, deliberate approaches, and my vague intuition (hah!) is that interest/excitement generally outperforms systematization/deliberation in the short run but vastly underperforms it in the long run.
This seems like a really good system/way of thinking about things. I feel like I’m much more driven by interest/excitement than systematic, deliberate approaches, and my vague intuition (hah!) is that interest/excitement generally outperforms systematization/deliberation in the short run but vastly underperforms it in the long run.