“Profits for investors in this venture [ETA: OpenAI] were capped at 100 times their investment (though thanks to a rule change this cap will rise by 20% a year starting in 2025).”
I stumbled upon this quote in this recent Economist article [archived] about OpenAI. I couldn’t find any good source that supports the claim additionally, so this might not be accurate. The earliest mention I could find for the claim is from January 17th 2023 although it only talks about OpenAI “proposing” the rule change.
If true, this would make the profit cap less meaningful, especially for longer AI timelines. For example, a 1 billion investment in 2023 would be capped at ~1540 times in 2040.
I’ve talked to some people who are involved with OpenAI secondary markets, and they’ve broadly corroborated this.
One source told me that after a specific year (didn’t say when), the cap can increase 20% per year, and the company can further adjust the cap as they fundraise.
I stumbled upon this quote in this recent Economist article [archived] about OpenAI. I couldn’t find any good source that supports the claim additionally, so this might not be accurate. The earliest mention I could find for the claim is from January 17th 2023 although it only talks about OpenAI “proposing” the rule change.
If true, this would make the profit cap less meaningful, especially for longer AI timelines. For example, a 1 billion investment in 2023 would be capped at ~1540 times in 2040.
I’ve talked to some people who are involved with OpenAI secondary markets, and they’ve broadly corroborated this.
One source told me that after a specific year (didn’t say when), the cap can increase 20% per year, and the company can further adjust the cap as they fundraise.
As of January 2023, the institutional markets were not predicting AGI within 30 years.