There’s reasonably little written about why longtermists should change their prioritisation in this direction. The notable exception is this paper by Will MacAskill.
This isn’t a comprehensive list, just some stuff off the top of my head.
Personally, I’ve spent a long time thinking about this and as far as I can tell, it’s incredibly uncertain if (e)x(tinction)-risk reduction is positive EV (x-risk reduction is almost tautologically positive to the point of uselessness). In general I think the community got weirdly one shotted by astronomical waste-like arguments which are interesting thought experiments but don’t really come close to solving cluelessness.
Well let me stop you right there.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/8ooZtgeWbsAxxP9bd
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/wmqLbtMMraAv5Gyqn
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CxMusuX8E5hiTXEWX/fruit-picking-as-an-existential-risk
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zuQeTaqrjveSiSMYo/a-proposed-hierarchy-of-longtermist-concepts
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wqmY98m3yNs6TiKeL/parfit-singer-aliens
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zLi3MbMCTtCv9ttyz/formalizing-extinction-risk-reduction-vs-longtermism
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WebLP36BYDbMAKoa5/the-future-might-not-be-so-great
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WebLP36BYDbMAKoa5/the-future-might-not-be-so-great?commentId=cJdqyAAzwrL74x2mG
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GsjmufaebreiaivF7/what-is-the-likelihood-that-civilizational-collapse-would
This isn’t a comprehensive list, just some stuff off the top of my head.
Personally, I’ve spent a long time thinking about this and as far as I can tell, it’s incredibly uncertain if (e)x(tinction)-risk reduction is positive EV (x-risk reduction is almost tautologically positive to the point of uselessness). In general I think the community got weirdly one shotted by astronomical waste-like arguments which are interesting thought experiments but don’t really come close to solving cluelessness.