A lot of EAs wanted to slow down AGI development to have more time for alignment. Now Trump’s tariffs have done that—accidentally and for the wrong reasons—but they did slow it down. Yet no EA seems happy about this. Given how unpopular his tariffs are maybe people don’t want to endorse them for PR reasons? But if you think that AI is by far the most important issue that should easily lead you to say the unpopular truth. Scenarios where China reaches AGI before the US became more likely, but that was always an argument against AI slowdown and it didn’t seem to convince many people in the past.
Thoughts?
Maybe this post should be placed in some AI safety thread, but I wasn’t sure where exactly.
Feels like claims like “Trump’s tariffs have slowed down AGI development” need some evidence to back then up. The larger companies working on AGI have already raised funds, assembled teams and bought hardware (which can be globally distributed if necessary) and believe they’re going to get extraordinary returns on that effort. Unlike retail and low margin business, it doesn’t seem like a 10% levy on manufactured goods or even being unable to import Chinese chips is going to stop them from making progress
I do think the whole technology innovations have been slowed down globally, in many ways. Both the good, the bad, or the not so good or not so bad things. However, the good things are easily being left behind than the bad things, right? Anyway, it’s why effective altruism’s about, doing what we can, smartly, to make it a better world each day, each time. I think AGI is not the holy grail, but an absolute moral AGI is the holy grail. However, how do we define moral? That’s a big question we all need to think about, ask about. The current moral standard of AIs, are vastly insufficient. Maybe, it’s an opportunity for us to rethink about it?
A lot of EAs wanted to slow down AGI development to have more time for alignment. Now Trump’s tariffs have done that—accidentally and for the wrong reasons—but they did slow it down. Yet no EA seems happy about this. Given how unpopular his tariffs are maybe people don’t want to endorse them for PR reasons? But if you think that AI is by far the most important issue that should easily lead you to say the unpopular truth. Scenarios where China reaches AGI before the US became more likely, but that was always an argument against AI slowdown and it didn’t seem to convince many people in the past.
Thoughts?
Maybe this post should be placed in some AI safety thread, but I wasn’t sure where exactly.
Feels like claims like “Trump’s tariffs have slowed down AGI development” need some evidence to back then up. The larger companies working on AGI have already raised funds, assembled teams and bought hardware (which can be globally distributed if necessary) and believe they’re going to get extraordinary returns on that effort. Unlike retail and low margin business, it doesn’t seem like a 10% levy on manufactured goods or even being unable to import Chinese chips is going to stop them from making progress
No one knows how things will shake out in the end, but trade wars don’t feel conducive to coordination.
I do think the whole technology innovations have been slowed down globally, in many ways. Both the good, the bad, or the not so good or not so bad things. However, the good things are easily being left behind than the bad things, right? Anyway, it’s why effective altruism’s about, doing what we can, smartly, to make it a better world each day, each time. I think AGI is not the holy grail, but an absolute moral AGI is the holy grail. However, how do we define moral? That’s a big question we all need to think about, ask about. The current moral standard of AIs, are vastly insufficient. Maybe, it’s an opportunity for us to rethink about it?