I don’t have any inside information into the government, it’s of course possible there are secretive programs somewhere.
“If they thought we were six months away from transformative AGI, they could nationalize it or shut it down.” Agreed, in theory. In practice, many different parts of the government think differently. It seems very likely that one will think that “there might be a 5% chance we’re six months away from transformative AGI”, but the parts that could take action just wouldn’t.
I don’t have any inside information into the government, it’s of course possible there are secretive programs somewhere.
“If they thought we were six months away from transformative AGI, they could nationalize it or shut it down.”
Agreed, in theory. In practice, many different parts of the government think differently. It seems very likely that one will think that “there might be a 5% chance we’re six months away from transformative AGI”, but the parts that could take action just wouldn’t.