This really does hinge on timelines. Post-GPT-4, I (and many others) have had a realisation that it seems likely that we basically have the AGI paradigm already (foundation models + planners/plugins), and are therefore in an emergency situation.
I’m willing to burn social as well as financial capital on saying this loudly. If in 5 years time we are still here for reasons other than a global AGI moratorium happening, then I’ll be happy to take the hit, as at least we won’t all be dead.
I think that (hinges on timelines) is right. Other than the first, I think most of my suggestions come at minimal cost to short-timelines-world, and will help with minimising friction/reputational hit in long-timelines world. Re: the first, not delivering the strongest (and least hedged) version of argument may weaken the message for short-timelines world. But I note that even within this community, there is wide uncertainty and disagreement re: timelines; very short timelines are far from consensus.
I want to be clear for the record here that this is enormously wrong, and Greg Colbourn’s advice should not be heeded unless someone else checks the facts/epistemics of his announcements, due to past issues with his calls for alarm.
I’ve detailed my reasoning in my posts. They are open for people to comment on them and address things at the object level. Please do so rather than cast aspersions.
This really does hinge on timelines. Post-GPT-4, I (and many others) have had a realisation that it seems likely that we basically have the AGI paradigm already (foundation models + planners/plugins), and are therefore in an emergency situation.
I’m willing to burn social as well as financial capital on saying this loudly. If in 5 years time we are still here for reasons other than a global AGI moratorium happening, then I’ll be happy to take the hit, as at least we won’t all be dead.
Is the parent comment really so bad that it warrants being downvoted to the point of being hidden?
I think that (hinges on timelines) is right. Other than the first, I think most of my suggestions come at minimal cost to short-timelines-world, and will help with minimising friction/reputational hit in long-timelines world. Re: the first, not delivering the strongest (and least hedged) version of argument may weaken the message for short-timelines world. But I note that even within this community, there is wide uncertainty and disagreement re: timelines; very short timelines are far from consensus.
I want to be clear for the record here that this is enormously wrong, and Greg Colbourn’s advice should not be heeded unless someone else checks the facts/epistemics of his announcements, due to past issues with his calls for alarm.
I’ve detailed my reasoning in my posts. They are open for people to comment on them and address things at the object level. Please do so rather than cast aspersions.
Or at least link to these “past issues” you refer to.