I helped work on this piece along with some other research attempting to assess tractability. I think it wasn’t super obvious that it was the best way to spend money but it was probably cost-competitive with many top donation opportunities in expectation. There also may have been ways we could have influenced things early on if we’d been putting in the effort in, say, 2023 (e.g. trying to get Biden out faster).
Politics work is basically always going to very low probability, high reward. In this election I’d argue the expected impacts counterbalanced the low probability of success.
I helped work on this piece along with some other research attempting to assess tractability. I think it wasn’t super obvious that it was the best way to spend money but it was probably cost-competitive with many top donation opportunities in expectation. There also may have been ways we could have influenced things early on if we’d been putting in the effort in, say, 2023 (e.g. trying to get Biden out faster).
Politics work is basically always going to very low probability, high reward. In this election I’d argue the expected impacts counterbalanced the low probability of success.