Thanks for pointing this out, I have a vague sense that Manifold markets can be non-ideal but don’t really know why or what these biases you’re talking about might be. I added a few more questions from other markets to compensate a bit + moved my disclaimer from the footnotes to the top of the section. These are still among the only public forecasts with actual numbers I know of, so seems better than nothing, right?
Also, fwiw, some well-informed people I know (who’s estimates I can’t share) have estimates quite similar to these prediction markets.
Interesting! Hadn’t read this newsletter yet. Excerpting the text here: “It remains a good idea for readers concerned about tail risks to consider getting a residency permit, or a passport, in countries such as Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Uruguay, etc., in case the political climate in the US becomes more turbulent.”