I think that there’s good evidence, including US intelligence claims, that Russia decided on the invasion many weeks ago. This is another point, to the others above, that are contra to the premise of your post.
I’m also skeptical that Putin is backed into a corner or that it’s worth any time reacting to related posturing, as others seem to have.
I think your post is more virtuous and thoughtful than it appears.
The truth is that the Ukraine resistance and efforts on the back of the Ukrainian people, provide enormous value for western and US interests. It’s not clear the Ukrainians are really being “compensated” for this.
(I’m not sure where this fits in with a “realist” worldview but) I see your post as pushing through this to look at the human toll. The truth is probably that human suffering will be a lot higher with the effective Ukraine resistance we are seeing than the collapse that Russia expected.
It’s risky to point this out, in front of many Ukrainians and others close to the events, including those in Poland who have suffered a terrible history of de facto betrayal and perfidy.
Another reason why I’m interested in asking questions is that deep models are rare and it’s good to poke and try to learn more about them.
I think that there’s good evidence, including US intelligence claims, that Russia decided on the invasion many weeks ago. This is another point, to the others above, that are contra to the premise of your post.
I’m also skeptical that Putin is backed into a corner or that it’s worth any time reacting to related posturing, as others seem to have.
Russian decisions, starting from weeks ago, through to today are easily rationalizable (if grossly incompetent and murderous). Putin can make his performative actions, but he spends a lot of effort/money on say, his $100M yacht which he carefully evacuated before the conflict or his (probable) billion dollar (!) palace in the Mediterranean climate on the Black Sea.
I think your post is more virtuous and thoughtful than it appears.
The truth is that the Ukraine resistance and efforts on the back of the Ukrainian people, provide enormous value for western and US interests. It’s not clear the Ukrainians are really being “compensated” for this.
(I’m not sure where this fits in with a “realist” worldview but) I see your post as pushing through this to look at the human toll. The truth is probably that human suffering will be a lot higher with the effective Ukraine resistance we are seeing than the collapse that Russia expected.
It’s risky to point this out, in front of many Ukrainians and others close to the events, including those in Poland who have suffered a terrible history of de facto betrayal and perfidy.
Another reason why I’m interested in asking questions is that deep models are rare and it’s good to poke and try to learn more about them.