> Will a nuclear incident lead to a nuclear exchange? > If we take rule of succession with a 10% naive prior and update based on surviving ten accidents so far, the chance of the next incident resulting in a nuclear exchange is (1-(10+10)/(10+11)) = 5%.
I’m not sure you can do this, because of anthropic effects (you don’t get to observe some words with nuclear exchanges). I would adjust this upwards.
Also, a 10% naïve prior smells a bit high, personally.
> Will a nuclear incident lead to a nuclear exchange?
> If we take rule of succession with a 10% naive prior and update based on surviving ten accidents so far, the chance of the next incident resulting in a nuclear exchange is (1-(10+10)/(10+11)) = 5%.
I’m not sure you can do this, because of anthropic effects (you don’t get to observe some words with nuclear exchanges). I would adjust this upwards.
Also, a 10% naïve prior smells a bit high, personally.