It seems like most of the additional coefficients you’ve added are impossible to estimate with any degree of confidence, particularly when it is plausible the impact may be negative. Whether it was the intention or not, that is the main message I get from your formulation
As someone who is not a strong longtermist, I note that an advantage for using non longtermist heuristics to evaluate impact is that identifying whether an action appears robustly positive for aggregate utility [for humans] on earth up to time t is much easier than anticipating the effect on the Virgo supercluster after time t
(A more sophisticated approach might use discounting for temporal and extreme spatial distance rather than time bounding, but amounts to the same thing; attaching zero weight to the estimated impact of my actions on the Virgo supercluster a thousand years from now)
It seems like most of the additional coefficients you’ve added are impossible to estimate with any degree of confidence, particularly when it is plausible the impact may be negative. Whether it was the intention or not, that is the main message I get from your formulation
As someone who is not a strong longtermist, I note that an advantage for using non longtermist heuristics to evaluate impact is that identifying whether an action appears robustly positive for aggregate utility [for humans] on earth up to time t is much easier than anticipating the effect on the Virgo supercluster after time t
(A more sophisticated approach might use discounting for temporal and extreme spatial distance rather than time bounding, but amounts to the same thing; attaching zero weight to the estimated impact of my actions on the Virgo supercluster a thousand years from now)