I would bet all the money I have (literally not figuratively)
Being willing to bet the money you have is much less strong evidence than the odds you would bet at. I too would be willing to bet very large amounts of money … if offered sufficiently high odds. The key issue is what odds you would make the bet at. Are you 95% confident? 99% confident? 99.99% confident?
(This is of course rather moot if you are not actually willing to bet.)
edited to add: note that the Kelly betting formula does not apply in a simple way here because for most young people ‘all the money they have’ is a small fraction of the net present value of their future income.
Being willing to bet the money you have is much less strong evidence than the odds you would bet at. I too would be willing to bet very large amounts of money … if offered sufficiently high odds. The key issue is what odds you would make the bet at. Are you 95% confident? 99% confident? 99.99% confident?
(This is of course rather moot if you are not actually willing to bet.)
edited to add: note that the Kelly betting formula does not apply in a simple way here because for most young people ‘all the money they have’ is a small fraction of the net present value of their future income.