Iâve been a fan of melodysheep since discovering his Symphony of Science series about 12 years ago.
Some thoughts as I watch:
- Toby Ordâs The Precipice and his 16 percent estimate of existential catastrophe (in the next century) is cited directly
- The first part of the script seems heavily-inspired by Will MacAskillâs What We Owe the Future - In particular there is a strong focus on non-extinction, non-existentially catastrophic civilization collapse, just like in WWOTF
- 12:40 âBut extinction in the long-term is nothing to fear. No species survives forever. Time will shape us into something new. The noble way to go extinct will be to evolve naturally to a higher species.ââThis is kind of ambiguous. Iâm not clear what message melodysheep is trying to get across, but itâs also vague enough that I donât I have a specific critique of it.
- 14:12 âBut the best way to secure our long-term survival is to take the leap that no other lifeform has ever taken, to become a multi-planetary species.â âOnce a self-sustaining civilization is established on another planet, the chances of our extinction will plummet.ââNo argument is made for either of these points in the video, and due to me thinking that colonizing another planet as a strategy to reduce existential risk is quite overrated in general, Iâm disappointed about that.
- As usual, melodysheepâs music and visuals are stunning, and I canât help but feel that the weakest part of the video is the script.
- Melodysheepâs top Patreon tier is $100 per video, and includes a one-on-one hangout with him (John Boswell). Given his videos get millions of views and are on important future-oriented topics, this seems like a cost-effective way to get in touch and potentially positively influence the direction of his videos.
- I skimmed his list of $10+ Patreon supporters and didnât see any names I recognized, so I think it it may be worthwhile for some EAs/âlongtermists who can provide useful feedback on his scripts to become supporters or otherwise get in touch in order to do that. Iâm not sure how open to feedback he is, but it seems worth trying. Anyone potentially interested?
Iâll also add that I didnât like the subtitle of the video: âA case for optimismâ.
A lot of popular takes on futurism topics seem to me to focus on being optimistic or pessimistic, but whether one is optimistic or pessimistic about something doesnât seem like the sort of thing one should argue for. It seems a little like writing the bottom line first.
Rather, people should attempt to figure out what the actual probabilities of different futures are and how we are able to influence the future to make certain futures more or less probable. From there itâs just a semantic question whether having a certain credence in a certain kind of future makes one an optimistic or a pessimist.
If one sets out to argue for being an optimist or pessimist, that seems like it would just introduce a bias into oneâs thinking, where once one identifies as e.g. an optimist, theyâll have trouble updating their beliefs about the probability that the future will be good or bad to various degrees. Paul Graham says Keep Your Identity Small, which seems very relevant.
Agreed. In a pinned comment of his he elaborates on why he went for the optimistic tone:
honestly, when I began this project, I was preparing to make a doomer-style âfinal warningâ video for humanity. but over the last two years of research and editing, my mindset has flipped. it will take a truly apocalyptic event to stop us, and we are more than capable of avoiding those scenarios and eventually reaching transcendent futures. pessimism is everywhere, and to some degree it is understandable. but the case for being optimistic is strong⌠and being optimistic puts us on the right footing for the upcoming centuries. what say the people??
It seems melodysheep went for a more passive âitâs plausible the future will be amazing, so letâs hope for thatâ framing over a more active âboth a great, terrible or nonexistent are possible, so letâs do what we can to avoid the latter twoâ framing. A bit of a shame, since itâs this call to action where the impact is to be found.
Iâve been a fan of melodysheep since discovering his Symphony of Science series about 12 years ago.
Some thoughts as I watch:
- Toby Ordâs The Precipice and his 16 percent estimate of existential catastrophe (in the next century) is cited directly
- The first part of the script seems heavily-inspired by Will MacAskillâs What We Owe the Future
- In particular there is a strong focus on non-extinction, non-existentially catastrophic civilization collapse, just like in WWOTF
- 12:40 âBut extinction in the long-term is nothing to fear. No species survives forever. Time will shape us into something new. The noble way to go extinct will be to evolve naturally to a higher species.ââThis is kind of ambiguous. Iâm not clear what message melodysheep is trying to get across, but itâs also vague enough that I donât I have a specific critique of it.
- 14:12 âBut the best way to secure our long-term survival is to take the leap that no other lifeform has ever taken, to become a multi-planetary species.â âOnce a self-sustaining civilization is established on another planet, the chances of our extinction will plummet.ââNo argument is made for either of these points in the video, and due to me thinking that colonizing another planet as a strategy to reduce existential risk is quite overrated in general, Iâm disappointed about that.
- As usual, melodysheepâs music and visuals are stunning, and I canât help but feel that the weakest part of the video is the script.
- Melodysheepâs top Patreon tier is $100 per video, and includes a one-on-one hangout with him (John Boswell). Given his videos get millions of views and are on important future-oriented topics, this seems like a cost-effective way to get in touch and potentially positively influence the direction of his videos.
- I skimmed his list of $10+ Patreon supporters and didnât see any names I recognized, so I think it it may be worthwhile for some EAs/âlongtermists who can provide useful feedback on his scripts to become supporters or otherwise get in touch in order to do that. Iâm not sure how open to feedback he is, but it seems worth trying. Anyone potentially interested?
Iâll also add that I didnât like the subtitle of the video: âA case for optimismâ.
A lot of popular takes on futurism topics seem to me to focus on being optimistic or pessimistic, but whether one is optimistic or pessimistic about something doesnât seem like the sort of thing one should argue for. It seems a little like writing the bottom line first.
Rather, people should attempt to figure out what the actual probabilities of different futures are and how we are able to influence the future to make certain futures more or less probable. From there itâs just a semantic question whether having a certain credence in a certain kind of future makes one an optimistic or a pessimist.
If one sets out to argue for being an optimist or pessimist, that seems like it would just introduce a bias into oneâs thinking, where once one identifies as e.g. an optimist, theyâll have trouble updating their beliefs about the probability that the future will be good or bad to various degrees. Paul Graham says Keep Your Identity Small, which seems very relevant.
Agreed. In a pinned comment of his he elaborates on why he went for the optimistic tone:
It seems melodysheep went for a more passive âitâs plausible the future will be amazing, so letâs hope for thatâ framing over a more active âboth a great, terrible or nonexistent are possible, so letâs do what we can to avoid the latter twoâ framing. A bit of a shame, since itâs this call to action where the impact is to be found.
Kurzgesagt script + Melody Sheep music and visuals = great video about the long term future. Someone should get a colab between the two going