I investigated this, and it doesn’t look like there is much evidence for herding among Metaculus users to any noticeable extent, or if there is herding, it doesn’t seem to increase as the number of predictors rises.
1. People REALLY like predicting multiples of 5
2. People still like predicting the median after accounting for this (eg looking at questions where the median isn’t a multiple of 5)
(Another way to see how much forecasters love those multiples of 5)
1. People REALLY like predicting multiples of 5
2. People still like predicting the median after accounting for this (eg looking at questions where the median isn’t a multiple of 5)
(Another way to see how much forecasters love those multiples of 5)