I think one issue with the current system is it has the opposite incentives—you get more points for predicting on popular questions. I don’t know that going all the way in the opposite direction makes sense but reducing this seems good to me.
Perhaps there’s another clever mechanism they could implement, but I’d guess that’s the lowest hanging fruit.
(Also just realised that I should flag that I was implicitly assuming the patterns you found are causal, not correlational, but we should remain uncertain about that. But it does seem fairly likely there’s a fairly large causal component, so I still basically endorse the above comment.)
I think one issue with the current system is it has the opposite incentives—you get more points for predicting on popular questions. I don’t know that going all the way in the opposite direction makes sense but reducing this seems good to me.
Perhaps there’s another clever mechanism they could implement, but I’d guess that’s the lowest hanging fruit.
Interesting, thanks.
(Also just realised that I should flag that I was implicitly assuming the patterns you found are causal, not correlational, but we should remain uncertain about that. But it does seem fairly likely there’s a fairly large causal component, so I still basically endorse the above comment.)