Coming back to this post, I’m thinking about what it means in terms of collaboration. Tetlock found that teams of superforecasters did better than people going at it alone. One process that could produce this kind of data is Metaculus being able to meaningfully coordinate 10 forecasters on one question (but not beyond that), whereas prediction markets right now kind of have people going at it alone.
Coming back to this post, I’m thinking about what it means in terms of collaboration. Tetlock found that teams of superforecasters did better than people going at it alone. One process that could produce this kind of data is Metaculus being able to meaningfully coordinate 10 forecasters on one question (but not beyond that), whereas prediction markets right now kind of have people going at it alone.