I would suggest that crypto’s socially-valuable / non-speculative uses are largely inconsistent with the existence of a significant degree of speculation. Notably, the first function of currency is as a store of value; the second is as a medium of exchange (because it depends on the first). Non-speculative users will have zero interest in using a currency that cannot meet these metrics due to heavy speculation.
I wonder if some of crypto’s popularity in some EA circles partially reflects a certain theory of how EA should get funded—basically a variant of the Dustin Moskovitz story. Someone generally in their 20s enters the “hot” field at the right time, VCs are willing to throw hundreds of millions at said unproven 20-something because the field is so hot, and the field experiences such massive growth that the founder can cash out with mid-10 to 11 figures within 10-15 years. The reality is that there are few niches in the economy for which that narrative is feasible at any given time. Among other things, there can’t be a lot of competitors with deep war chests to overwhelm less-funded entrants, the profit margins have to be quite high, the capital requirements have to be moderate, etc.
I haven’t been trying to amass 10-11 digits of wealth in the past five years . . . or ever . . . so am not sure where people have thought the best niches were in the last five years (other than crypto). But if you’re committed to this theory of funding, it would (be / have been) very hard to write crypto off as an appealing option. Where else can you print so much “currency” out of thin air?
I would suggest that crypto’s socially-valuable / non-speculative uses are largely inconsistent with the existence of a significant degree of speculation. Notably, the first function of currency is as a store of value; the second is as a medium of exchange (because it depends on the first). Non-speculative users will have zero interest in using a currency that cannot meet these metrics due to heavy speculation.
I wonder if some of crypto’s popularity in some EA circles partially reflects a certain theory of how EA should get funded—basically a variant of the Dustin Moskovitz story. Someone generally in their 20s enters the “hot” field at the right time, VCs are willing to throw hundreds of millions at said unproven 20-something because the field is so hot, and the field experiences such massive growth that the founder can cash out with mid-10 to 11 figures within 10-15 years. The reality is that there are few niches in the economy for which that narrative is feasible at any given time. Among other things, there can’t be a lot of competitors with deep war chests to overwhelm less-funded entrants, the profit margins have to be quite high, the capital requirements have to be moderate, etc.
I haven’t been trying to amass 10-11 digits of wealth in the past five years . . . or ever . . . so am not sure where people have thought the best niches were in the last five years (other than crypto). But if you’re committed to this theory of funding, it would (be / have been) very hard to write crypto off as an appealing option. Where else can you print so much “currency” out of thin air?
[edited typo]