Personally, the simple stories that I pretty much endorse, and that are among the stories within which my choices would make sense, are basically âlow-confidenceâ, âexpected valueâ, and/âor âportfolioâ versions of some of these (particularly those focused on existential risks). One such story would be:
Thereâs a non-trivial chance that there are risks to the future of humanity (âexistential risksâ), and that vastly more is at stake in these than in anything else going on. Meanwhile the worldâs thinking and responsiveness to these risks is incredibly minor and they are taken unseriously. So, in expectation, itâd be a really, really good idea if some people acted to reduce these risks.
(âNon-trivialâ probably understates my actual beliefs. When I forced myself to try to estimate total existential risk by 2120, I came up with a very tentative 13%. But I think I might behave similarly even if my estimate was quite a bit lower.)
What I mean by âportfolioâ versions is basically that I think Iâd endorse tentative versions of a wide range of the stories you mention, which leads me to think there should be at least some people focused on basically acting as if each of those stories are true (though ideally remembering that thatâs super uncertain). And then I can slot into that portfolio in the way that makes sense on the margin, given my particular skills, interests, etc.
(All that said, I think thereâs a good argument for stating the stories more confidently, simply, and single-mindedly for the purposes of this post.)
Personally, the simple stories that I pretty much endorse, and that are among the stories within which my choices would make sense, are basically âlow-confidenceâ, âexpected valueâ, and/âor âportfolioâ versions of some of these (particularly those focused on existential risks). One such story would be:
(âNon-trivialâ probably understates my actual beliefs. When I forced myself to try to estimate total existential risk by 2120, I came up with a very tentative 13%. But I think I might behave similarly even if my estimate was quite a bit lower.)
What I mean by âportfolioâ versions is basically that I think Iâd endorse tentative versions of a wide range of the stories you mention, which leads me to think there should be at least some people focused on basically acting as if each of those stories are true (though ideally remembering that thatâs super uncertain). And then I can slot into that portfolio in the way that makes sense on the margin, given my particular skills, interests, etc.
(All that said, I think thereâs a good argument for stating the stories more confidently, simply, and single-mindedly for the purposes of this post.)