Thank you for this post, Neel! I think it’s really useful to amplify stories about how people developed (and are continuing to develop) inside views.
I’ve recently been thinking about an analogy between “developing inside views” and “thinking deliberately about one’s career.” I think there’s a parallel with 80,000 Hours’ general advice. It’s like, “We have 80,000 Hours in our career; career planning is really hard, but wouldn’t it make sense to spend at least a few dozen or a few hundred hours planning before making big choices? Isn’t is super weird that we live in a society in which the “default” for career planning is usually so unhelpful? Even if we won’t land on the perfect career, it seems worth it to spend some time actually trying to figure out what we should do, and we might be surprised with how far that takes us.”
The same frame might be useful for developing inside views in AI safety. When I think about someone with 80,000 Hours in their career, I’m like “wow, wouldn’t it be nice to spend at least a few dozen hours upfront to try to see if they can make progress developing an inside view?. It’s quite plausible they just spend a few dozen hours being super confused, and then they can go on and do what they were going to do anyways. But the potential upside is huge!”
This has motivated me to ask myself these questions, and I might experiment with asking others: How much have you reallytried to form an inside view? If you could free up a few hours, what would you do to make progress?
I’ve found these questions (and similar questions) to be pretty helpful. They allow me to keep my eye on the objective (developing an inside view on a highly complicated topic in which many experts disagree) without losing sight of the trail (there are things I can literally do, right now, to continue taking small steps in the right direction).
Thank you for this post, Neel! I think it’s really useful to amplify stories about how people developed (and are continuing to develop) inside views.
I’ve recently been thinking about an analogy between “developing inside views” and “thinking deliberately about one’s career.” I think there’s a parallel with 80,000 Hours’ general advice. It’s like, “We have 80,000 Hours in our career; career planning is really hard, but wouldn’t it make sense to spend at least a few dozen or a few hundred hours planning before making big choices? Isn’t is super weird that we live in a society in which the “default” for career planning is usually so unhelpful? Even if we won’t land on the perfect career, it seems worth it to spend some time actually trying to figure out what we should do, and we might be surprised with how far that takes us.”
The same frame might be useful for developing inside views in AI safety. When I think about someone with 80,000 Hours in their career, I’m like “wow, wouldn’t it be nice to spend at least a few dozen hours upfront to try to see if they can make progress developing an inside view?. It’s quite plausible they just spend a few dozen hours being super confused, and then they can go on and do what they were going to do anyways. But the potential upside is huge!”
This has motivated me to ask myself these questions, and I might experiment with asking others: How much have you really tried to form an inside view? If you could free up a few hours, what would you do to make progress?
I’ve found these questions (and similar questions) to be pretty helpful. They allow me to keep my eye on the objective (developing an inside view on a highly complicated topic in which many experts disagree) without losing sight of the trail (there are things I can literally do, right now, to continue taking small steps in the right direction).