I think this research into x-risk & economic growth is a good contribution to patient longtermism. I also think that integrating thoughts on economic growth more deeply into EA holds a lot of promise—maybe models like this one could someday form a kind of “medium-termist” bridge between different cause areas, creating a common prioritization framework. For both of these reasons I think this post is worth of inclusion in the decadal review.
The question of whether to be for or against economic growth in general is perhaps not the number-one most pressing dilemma in EA (since everyone agrees that differential technology development into x-risk-reducing areas is very important), but it is surely up there, since it’s such a big-picture question that affects so many decisions. Other than X-risk concerns, economic growth obviously looks attractive—both in the developing world where it’s a great way to make the world’s poorest people more prosperous, or in the first world where the causes championed by “progress studies” promise to create a prosperous and more dynamic society where people can live better lives. But of course, by longtermist lights, how fast we get to the future is less important than making sure we get there at all. So, in the end, what to do about influencing economic growth? Leopold’s work is probably just a starting point for this huge and perhaps unanswerable set of questions. But it’s a good start—I’m not sure if I want more economic growth or not, but I definitely want more posts like these tackling the question.
I think this research into x-risk & economic growth is a good contribution to patient longtermism. I also think that integrating thoughts on economic growth more deeply into EA holds a lot of promise—maybe models like this one could someday form a kind of “medium-termist” bridge between different cause areas, creating a common prioritization framework. For both of these reasons I think this post is worth of inclusion in the decadal review.
The question of whether to be for or against economic growth in general is perhaps not the number-one most pressing dilemma in EA (since everyone agrees that differential technology development into x-risk-reducing areas is very important), but it is surely up there, since it’s such a big-picture question that affects so many decisions. Other than X-risk concerns, economic growth obviously looks attractive—both in the developing world where it’s a great way to make the world’s poorest people more prosperous, or in the first world where the causes championed by “progress studies” promise to create a prosperous and more dynamic society where people can live better lives. But of course, by longtermist lights, how fast we get to the future is less important than making sure we get there at all. So, in the end, what to do about influencing economic growth? Leopold’s work is probably just a starting point for this huge and perhaps unanswerable set of questions. But it’s a good start—I’m not sure if I want more economic growth or not, but I definitely want more posts like these tackling the question.
For the decadal review, rather than the literal text of this post (which merely refers to the pdf) or the comprehensive 100-page pdf itself, I’d suggest including Leopold’s “Works in Progress” article summarizing his research.