I’m just putting numbers to the previous sentence: “Say the current (instantaneous) hazard rate is 1% per century; my guess is that most of this consists of (instantaneous) risk imposed by existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons, existing climate instability, and so on, rather than (instantaneous) risk imposed by research currently ongoing.”
If “most” means “80%” there, then halting growth would lower the hazard rate from 1% to 0.8%.
Can you say how you came up with the “moving from 1% to 0.8%” part? Everything else in your comment makes sense to me.
I’m just putting numbers to the previous sentence: “Say the current (instantaneous) hazard rate is 1% per century; my guess is that most of this consists of (instantaneous) risk imposed by existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons, existing climate instability, and so on, rather than (instantaneous) risk imposed by research currently ongoing.”
If “most” means “80%” there, then halting growth would lower the hazard rate from 1% to 0.8%.