The cost-effectiveness of GiveDirectly has gone up by 3-4x (GW blog, GD blog), though this was recent news and does not necessarily imply that WELLBYs will also go up by 3-4x (most of this increase is attributable to increased consumption) - but should constitute a discount at least.
I’m not sure about this; the HLI’s analysis of GiveDirectly only looks at direct individual effects and household spillovers. Whereas GiveWell’s update seemingly only found additional effects in terms of non-household spillovers, mortality, and consumption (based on a 5 minute check, so I might be wrong here).
I think it’s reasonable to argue that depression prevention would also have effects on mortality, consumption (via productivity increases—my guesses here peg this quite high, especially in LMICs and UMICs), and non-household spillovers (via increased income being reinvested into communities, using the same mechanism as GD). Unless there’s reason to believe that the non-accounted-for impacts on WELLBYs systematically favour GiveDirectly I’d be cautious about applying a discount—but curious for your take on that :)
I might be misunderstanding you, but are you saying that after reading the GD updates, we should update on VP equally to GD / that we should expect the relative cost-effectiveness ratio between the two to remain the same?
Hmm, no. I wouldn’t want Vida Plena to update without evidence that they have those secondary effects.
But I think it would also be misleading to compare direct effects + household spillovers (in the case of Vida Plena) to direct effects + household spillovers + community spillovers + mortality reduction + consumption increases (GiveDirectly), unless you had good reason to believe that Vida Plena’s secondary effects are much worse than GiveDirectly’s. So I suppose I would be wary of saying that GiveDirectly now have 3–4x the WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—or even to say that GiveDirectly have any more WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—without having a good sense of how Vida Plena performs on those secondary outcomes. (But I feel like maybe I’m misunderstanding what you meant by applying a discount?)
So I suppose I would be wary of saying that GiveDirectly now have 3–4x the WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—or even to say that GiveDirectly have any more WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena
Ah right—yeah I’m not making either of these claims, I’m just saying that if the previous claim (from VP’s predictive CEA) was that: “Vida Plena...is 8 times more cost-effective than GiveDirectly”, and GD has since been updated to 3-4x more cost-effective than it was compared to the time the predictive CEA was published, we should discount the 8x claim downwards somewhat (but not necessarily by 3-4x).
I’m not sure about this; the HLI’s analysis of GiveDirectly only looks at direct individual effects and household spillovers. Whereas GiveWell’s update seemingly only found additional effects in terms of non-household spillovers, mortality, and consumption (based on a 5 minute check, so I might be wrong here).
I think it’s reasonable to argue that depression prevention would also have effects on mortality, consumption (via productivity increases—my guesses here peg this quite high, especially in LMICs and UMICs), and non-household spillovers (via increased income being reinvested into communities, using the same mechanism as GD). Unless there’s reason to believe that the non-accounted-for impacts on WELLBYs systematically favour GiveDirectly I’d be cautious about applying a discount—but curious for your take on that :)
I might be misunderstanding you, but are you saying that after reading the GD updates, we should update on VP equally to GD / that we should expect the relative cost-effectiveness ratio between the two to remain the same?
Hmm, no. I wouldn’t want Vida Plena to update without evidence that they have those secondary effects.
But I think it would also be misleading to compare direct effects + household spillovers (in the case of Vida Plena) to direct effects + household spillovers + community spillovers + mortality reduction + consumption increases (GiveDirectly), unless you had good reason to believe that Vida Plena’s secondary effects are much worse than GiveDirectly’s. So I suppose I would be wary of saying that GiveDirectly now have 3–4x the WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—or even to say that GiveDirectly have any more WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—without having a good sense of how Vida Plena performs on those secondary outcomes. (But I feel like maybe I’m misunderstanding what you meant by applying a discount?)
Ah right—yeah I’m not making either of these claims, I’m just saying that if the previous claim (from VP’s predictive CEA) was that: “Vida Plena...is 8 times more cost-effective than GiveDirectly”, and GD has since been updated to 3-4x more cost-effective than it was compared to the time the predictive CEA was published, we should discount the 8x claim downwards somewhat (but not necessarily by 3-4x).