This comment sounds qualitatively reasonable, but it needs a quantitative complement—it could have been made virtually verbatim had the cost been £1.5m or £150m. I would like to hear the case for why it was actually worth £15m.
Also, a lot of people are talking about ‘optics’, with the implication that the irrational public will misunderstand the +EV of such a decision. But ‘bad optics’ don’t come from nowhere—they come from a very reasonable worry that over time, people who influence a lot of money have some risk of, if not becoming corrupt, at least getting carried away with that influence and rationalising away things like this.
I think we should always take such possibilities seriously, not to imply anyone has actually done anything wildly irresponsible, but to insure against anyone doing so—and to keep grey areas as thin as possible. And I’m increasingly worried that CEA are seriously undertransparent in ways that suggest they don’t think such risks could materialise—which increases my credence that they could. So while I could be convinced this was a reasonable use of funds, I think the decision not to ‘hype’ it builds a dangerous precedent.
You can check how many events GPI, FHI, and CEA have run in Oxford, requiring renting hotels, etc., and the associated costs. I know that GPI runs at least a couple such events per year. Given that, I think that over the next 10-20 years, £15m isn’t outside the realm of plausible direct costs saved, especially if it’s available for other groups to rent in order to help cover costs.
That said, the cost-benefit analysis could be more transparent. On the other hand, I don’t think that private donors should be required to justify their decisions, regardless of the vehicle used. But I do think that CEA is the wrong place for this to be done, given that they aren’t even likely to be a key user of the space. (Edit: Owen’s explanation, that this was done by the parent org of CEA, means I will withdraw the last claim.)
I accept that it’s plausibly in the realm, but that’s not very helpful for knowing whether it’s actually worthwhile—plausibility is a very low bar.
the other hand, I don’t think that private donors should be required to justify their decisions
This doesn’t seem like a good blanket policy. If private donors can use a charity to buy large luxury goods, it raises worries about that charity becoming a tax haven, or a reward for favours, or any other number of such hard-to-predefine but questionable activities. There are legal implications around charities taking too much of their money from a single donor for exactly that reason.
I don’t think we’re there yet, but, per above, I would like to see more discussion from CEA of the risks associated with moving in that direction.
But I do think that CEA is the wrong place for this to be done, given that they aren’t even likely to be a key user of the space.
Agree. I don’t mind the idea of a sort of EA special projects orgs that has relatively high autonomy, but I don’t want that org to also be the face of the community—as I understand it, that’s basically how we ended up with FTXgate. We’d also probably want them to source funding from a wide range of sources to avoid the unilateralists’ curse, which this situation is at least flirting with.
I think we mostly agree, but don’t think this was unilateralists’ curse, and it isn’t even close. Many people were aware of or involved in discussions about this, and having multiple donors doesn’t guarantee not falling into unilateralism.
Re unilateralism obviously more donors isn’t anything like a guarantee, but is one of hopefully many safeguards. On the other hand, many people approving of it here (assuming they broadly did) doesn’t mean it’s not a form of unilateralism depending on how those people were included in the discussion—if, for eg, they were all major CEA funders and staff, there’s likely to be extreme selection bias in their opinions on the relevant questions.
I’m telling you that, as someone who hasn’t ever worked for or with CEA directly, I spoke with a couple people about this months before it happened. Clearly, plenty of people were aware, and discussed this—and I didn’t know the price tag, but thought that a center for retreats focused on global priorities and related topics near Oxford sounded like a very good idea. I still think it is, and honestly don’t think that it’s unreasonable as a potential investment into priorities research. Of course, given the current post-FTX situation, it would obviously not have been considered if the project was being proposed today.
This comment sounds qualitatively reasonable, but it needs a quantitative complement—it could have been made virtually verbatim had the cost been £1.5m or £150m. I would like to hear the case for why it was actually worth £15m.
Also, a lot of people are talking about ‘optics’, with the implication that the irrational public will misunderstand the +EV of such a decision. But ‘bad optics’ don’t come from nowhere—they come from a very reasonable worry that over time, people who influence a lot of money have some risk of, if not becoming corrupt, at least getting carried away with that influence and rationalising away things like this.
I think we should always take such possibilities seriously, not to imply anyone has actually done anything wildly irresponsible, but to insure against anyone doing so—and to keep grey areas as thin as possible. And I’m increasingly worried that CEA are seriously undertransparent in ways that suggest they don’t think such risks could materialise—which increases my credence that they could. So while I could be convinced this was a reasonable use of funds, I think the decision not to ‘hype’ it builds a dangerous precedent.
You can check how many events GPI, FHI, and CEA have run in Oxford, requiring renting hotels, etc., and the associated costs. I know that GPI runs at least a couple such events per year. Given that, I think that over the next 10-20 years, £15m isn’t outside the realm of plausible direct costs saved, especially if it’s available for other groups to rent in order to help cover costs.
That said, the cost-benefit analysis could be more transparent. On the other hand, I don’t think that private donors should be required to justify their decisions, regardless of the vehicle used.
But I do think that CEA is the wrong place for this to be done, given that they aren’t even likely to be a key user of the space.(Edit: Owen’s explanation, that this was done by the parent org of CEA, means I will withdraw the last claim.)I accept that it’s plausibly in the realm, but that’s not very helpful for knowing whether it’s actually worthwhile—plausibility is a very low bar.
This doesn’t seem like a good blanket policy. If private donors can use a charity to buy large luxury goods, it raises worries about that charity becoming a tax haven, or a reward for favours, or any other number of such hard-to-predefine but questionable activities. There are legal implications around charities taking too much of their money from a single donor for exactly that reason.
I don’t think we’re there yet, but, per above, I would like to see more discussion from CEA of the risks associated with moving in that direction.
Agree. I don’t mind the idea of a sort of EA special projects orgs that has relatively high autonomy, but I don’t want that org to also be the face of the community—as I understand it, that’s basically how we ended up with FTXgate. We’d also probably want them to source funding from a wide range of sources to avoid the unilateralists’ curse, which this situation is at least flirting with.
I think we mostly agree, but don’t think this was unilateralists’ curse, and it isn’t even close. Many people were aware of or involved in discussions about this, and having multiple donors doesn’t guarantee not falling into unilateralism.
I agree on what we agree and disagree about :)
Re unilateralism obviously more donors isn’t anything like a guarantee, but is one of hopefully many safeguards. On the other hand, many people approving of it here (assuming they broadly did) doesn’t mean it’s not a form of unilateralism depending on how those people were included in the discussion—if, for eg, they were all major CEA funders and staff, there’s likely to be extreme selection bias in their opinions on the relevant questions.
I’m telling you that, as someone who hasn’t ever worked for or with CEA directly, I spoke with a couple people about this months before it happened. Clearly, plenty of people were aware, and discussed this—and I didn’t know the price tag, but thought that a center for retreats focused on global priorities and related topics near Oxford sounded like a very good idea. I still think it is, and honestly don’t think that it’s unreasonable as a potential investment into priorities research. Of course, given the current post-FTX situation, it would obviously not have been considered if the project was being proposed today.