Beyond this, the conference center can also be net positive EV even if it has a net negative effect on donations. If it cuts out donations in half, but triples the effectiveness of the money we do spend, then it’s paying for itself in utilons.
I think this overstates the case significantly. Beyond specific disagreements with the numbers, Wytham’s influence on the movement is likely more local, while harm to donations is likely more global, meaning that I expect the net effects are unlikely to balance in Wytham’s favour.
I chose my words carefully here, and phrased my comment as a hypothetical pathway by which the conference center could be net positive EV with a negative effect on donations. The likelihood that it is in fact positive EV is an entirely separate question. We don’t have data on that—not even the bad tweets and press we’re getting right now is evidence of the effect on donations. Obviously, we’re never going to have great data and we’ll have to do reasoning under uncertainty. But I don’t think we should update much on twitter. Until someone really digs in and writes the analysis, I’m withholding judgment.
I think this overstates the case significantly. Beyond specific disagreements with the numbers, Wytham’s influence on the movement is likely more local, while harm to donations is likely more global, meaning that I expect the net effects are unlikely to balance in Wytham’s favour.
I chose my words carefully here, and phrased my comment as a hypothetical pathway by which the conference center could be net positive EV with a negative effect on donations. The likelihood that it is in fact positive EV is an entirely separate question. We don’t have data on that—not even the bad tweets and press we’re getting right now is evidence of the effect on donations. Obviously, we’re never going to have great data and we’ll have to do reasoning under uncertainty. But I don’t think we should update much on twitter. Until someone really digs in and writes the analysis, I’m withholding judgment.