I chose my words carefully here, and phrased my comment as a hypothetical pathway by which the conference center could be net positive EV with a negative effect on donations. The likelihood that it is in fact positive EV is an entirely separate question. We don’t have data on that—not even the bad tweets and press we’re getting right now is evidence of the effect on donations. Obviously, we’re never going to have great data and we’ll have to do reasoning under uncertainty. But I don’t think we should update much on twitter. Until someone really digs in and writes the analysis, I’m withholding judgment.
I chose my words carefully here, and phrased my comment as a hypothetical pathway by which the conference center could be net positive EV with a negative effect on donations. The likelihood that it is in fact positive EV is an entirely separate question. We don’t have data on that—not even the bad tweets and press we’re getting right now is evidence of the effect on donations. Obviously, we’re never going to have great data and we’ll have to do reasoning under uncertainty. But I don’t think we should update much on twitter. Until someone really digs in and writes the analysis, I’m withholding judgment.