Given the massive decline in expected EA liquidity since the purchase and the fact that the purchase was largely justified on the grounds that as a durable asset it could be converted back into liquid funds with minimal loss, why not sell it now?.
Seems worth it to check whether it breaks even given a lot of the fixed costs (like transaction costs) have been paid. If it breaks even, we can keep it. If it doesn’t, we can sell it, but committing to selling it right now seems like it would waste a bunch of valuable information that can be (relatively) cheaply obtained right now.
If it’s the right decision to sell and use the money a better way, that still applies, whether or not there is a small loss. To have a loss might be somewhat embarrassing, but truth is truth.
Anyway, in the UK you can put a property up for sale at an ideal price, and see what offers come in. It’s hard to know for sure what price you will get without doing that.
Nit: I was very explicitly asking why not sell, not suggesting a commitment to sell; I don’t appreciate the rhetorical pivot to argue against a point I was not making.
Yes, they should check that it makes financial sense. Though break-even shouldn’t be an anchor or decision point—what matters is whether the money from a sale could be better spent elsewhere, which doesn’t really have anything to do with money already spent.
If it doesn’t make sense to sell, then they shouldn’t sell—but they should also be ready to admit that they made an error in their initial analysis, because it would mean that the bulk of the cost is effectively gone and the true price in opportunity cost was significantly higher than the marginal costs implied.
To a first approximation, it’s either a mostly-recoverable expense that didn’t really cost that much when you consider it maintains its value as a durable good, or it’s not financially feasible to sell and all of those funds are sunk. It can’t be both.
Nit: I was very explicitly asking why not sell, not suggesting a commitment to sell; I don’t appreciate the rhetorical pivot to argue against a point I was not making.
I don’t get this nit. Wasn’t Oliver’s comment straightforwardly answering your question, “Why not sell it now?” by giving an argument against selling it now?
How is that a pivot? He added the word “commiting”, but I don’t see how that changes the substance. I think he was just emphasizing what would be lost if we sold now without waiting for more info. Which seems like a perfectly valid answer to the question you asked!
tldr: this is way more ink than should be spilt over a minor rhetorical point, but I believe it’s a real and meaningful (though minor) strawmanning that selects a weaker opponent for the “keep” position to face.
I don’t understand this response? You asked “why not sell it now?”, and I answered that exact question. I also covered a slightly broader case of “committing to sell”, but that just totally covers the “sell now” case.
I labeled this a nit in the hopes of avoiding this kind of deep spiral, but—“commit” is a significant intensifier that specifically implies overriding or ignoring opposing reasons beyond what would normally be expected.
“Why not sell the abbey?” is seeking countervailing reasons while implicitly framing “sell” as the default option to overcome.
”Should they commit to selling the abbey?” is seeking to ignore all possible countervailing reasons and implicitly frames “keep” as the default option which can only be overcome with an overwhelmingly strong argument.
Replacing the former with the latter is choosing a weaker opponent for the “keep” position to overcome.
This is a minor rhetorical thing that does not warrant as many words as this, but it is a real and meaningful thing.
Yes, they should check that it makes financial sense. Though break-even shouldn’t be an anchor or decision point—what matters is whether the money from a sale could be better spent elsewhere, which doesn’t really have anything to do with money already spent.
Sorry, yes, by break-even I meant “a better use than the last dollar that Open Phil expects to spend”.
But that’s not a function of whether “a lot of the fixed costs (like transaction costs) have been paid”. That is very specifically referring to break-even relative to costs already expended, not to counterfactual spending. It’s okay if you’ve changed your mind, but I don’t think that what you said originally is consistent with this comment.
Given the massive decline in expected EA liquidity since the purchase and the fact that the purchase was largely justified on the grounds that as a durable asset it could be converted back into liquid funds with minimal loss, why not sell it now?.
Seems worth it to check whether it breaks even given a lot of the fixed costs (like transaction costs) have been paid. If it breaks even, we can keep it. If it doesn’t, we can sell it, but committing to selling it right now seems like it would waste a bunch of valuable information that can be (relatively) cheaply obtained right now.
Isn’t that “sunk cost fallacy” ?
If it’s the right decision to sell and use the money a better way, that still applies, whether or not there is a small loss. To have a loss might be somewhat embarrassing, but truth is truth.
Anyway, in the UK you can put a property up for sale at an ideal price, and see what offers come in. It’s hard to know for sure what price you will get without doing that.
Nit: I was very explicitly asking why not sell, not suggesting a commitment to sell; I don’t appreciate the rhetorical pivot to argue against a point I was not making.
Yes, they should check that it makes financial sense. Though break-even shouldn’t be an anchor or decision point—what matters is whether the money from a sale could be better spent elsewhere, which doesn’t really have anything to do with money already spent.
If it doesn’t make sense to sell, then they shouldn’t sell—but they should also be ready to admit that they made an error in their initial analysis, because it would mean that the bulk of the cost is effectively gone and the true price in opportunity cost was significantly higher than the marginal costs implied.
To a first approximation, it’s either a mostly-recoverable expense that didn’t really cost that much when you consider it maintains its value as a durable good, or it’s not financially feasible to sell and all of those funds are sunk. It can’t be both.
I don’t get this nit. Wasn’t Oliver’s comment straightforwardly answering your question, “Why not sell it now?” by giving an argument against selling it now?
How is that a pivot? He added the word “commiting”, but I don’t see how that changes the substance. I think he was just emphasizing what would be lost if we sold now without waiting for more info. Which seems like a perfectly valid answer to the question you asked!
Reply here—https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xof7iFB3uh8Kc53bG/why-did-cea-buy-wytham-abbey?commentId=tZP9seDyxvS7ot4t7
tldr: this is way more ink than should be spilt over a minor rhetorical point, but I believe it’s a real and meaningful (though minor) strawmanning that selects a weaker opponent for the “keep” position to face.
I don’t understand this response? You asked “why not sell it now?”, and I answered that exact question. I also covered a slightly broader case of “committing to sell”, but that just totally covers the “sell now” case.
I labeled this a nit in the hopes of avoiding this kind of deep spiral, but—“commit” is a significant intensifier that specifically implies overriding or ignoring opposing reasons beyond what would normally be expected.
“Why not sell the abbey?” is seeking countervailing reasons while implicitly framing “sell” as the default option to overcome.
”Should they commit to selling the abbey?” is seeking to ignore all possible countervailing reasons and implicitly frames “keep” as the default option which can only be overcome with an overwhelmingly strong argument.
Replacing the former with the latter is choosing a weaker opponent for the “keep” position to overcome.
This is a minor rhetorical thing that does not warrant as many words as this, but it is a real and meaningful thing.
Sorry, yes, by break-even I meant “a better use than the last dollar that Open Phil expects to spend”.
But that’s not a function of whether “a lot of the fixed costs (like transaction costs) have been paid”. That is very specifically referring to break-even relative to costs already expended, not to counterfactual spending. It’s okay if you’ve changed your mind, but I don’t think that what you said originally is consistent with this comment.