ESRogs

Karma: 418

ESRogs Jun 19, 2024, 5:44 PM
20 points
8 ∶ 0
in reply to: Chris Leong’s comment on: My experience at the controversial Manifest 2024
A more minor point, but perhaps worth noting — rationalists also made the forum software we’re all using to have this discussion.

Paul Christiano on Dwarkesh Podcast

ESRogsNov 3, 2023, 10:13 PM

5 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)

ESRogs Aug 2, 2023, 7:00 PM
10 points
3 ∶ 0
on: Shaping Humanity’s Longterm Trajectory
I’ve developed a clean mathematical framework in which possibilities like this can be made precise, the assumptions behind them can be clearly stated, and their value can be compared.
Sorry if I’m missing something (I’ve only skimmed the paper), but is the “mathematical framework” just the idea of integrating value over time?
I’m quite surprised to see this idea presented as new. Isn’t this idea very obvious? Haven’t we been thinking this way all along?
Like, how else could you possibly think of the value of the future of humanity? (The other mathematically simple option that comes to mind is to only value some end state and ignore all intermediate value, but that doesn’t seem very compelling.)
Again, apologies if I’m missing something, which seems likely. Would appreciate anyone who can fill in the gaps for me if so!

ESRogs Mar 23, 2023, 5:12 PM
1 point
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Ben_West🔸’s comment on: Some Comments on the Recent FTX TIME Article
Got it, thanks!

ESRogs Mar 22, 2023, 3:40 AM
3 points
4 ∶ 3
in reply to: ESRogs’s comment on: Some Comments on the Recent FTX TIME Article
I’m surprised by all the disagree votes on a comment that is primarily a question.
Do all the people who disagreed think it’s obvious whether Ben meant while he was working at AR or subsequently? If so, which one?
(I’m guessing the disagree votes were meant to register disagreement with my claim that it’s relatively normal for interviewers / employers to tell candidates reasons a job might not be a good for them. Is that it, or something else?)

ESRogs Mar 21, 2023, 11:56 PM
12 points
8 ∶ 3
in reply to: Ubuntu’s comment on: Some Comments on the Recent FTX TIME Article
These people knew about one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history but didn’t try to stop it
I think you’re stretching here. Nowhere in the article does it suggest that the EA leaders actually knew about ongoing fraud.
It just says (as in the quotes you cited), that they’d been warned Sam was shady. That’s very different from having actual knowledge of ongoing fraud. If the article wanted to make that claim, I think it would have been more direct about it.

ESRogs Mar 21, 2023, 10:55 PM
0 points
3 ∶ 6
on: Some Comments on the Recent FTX TIME Article
Sam was fine with me telling prospective AR employees why I thought they shouldn’t join (and in fact I did do this)
Didn’t quite follow this part. Is this referring to while you were still at AR or subsequently?
If it was while you were still working there, that seems pretty normal. Not every candidate should be sold on the job. Some should be encouraged not to join if it’s not going to be a good fit for them. Why would this even be controversial with Sam? Or were you telling them not to join specifically because of criticisms you had of the CEO?
If it was subsequent, how do you know he was fine with it? What would he have done if he wasn’t fine with it?

ESRogs Mar 21, 2023, 10:38 PM
13 points
7 ∶ 5
on: Some Comments on the Recent FTX TIME Article
Your summary of the article’s thesis doesn’t seem right to me:
b. Even though those EAs (including myself) quit before FTX was founded and therefore could not have had any first-hand knowledge of this improper relationship between AR and FTX, they knew things (like information about Sam’s character) which would have enabled them to predict that something bad would happen
c. This information was passed on to “EA leaders”, who did not take enough preventative action and are therefore (partly) responsible for FTX’s collapse
I interpreted the article as arguing more that EA leaders should not have promoted FTX / Sam as a model to look up to, or aligned themselves with him, rather than that they should have somehow prevented the fraud.
The article has this to say about the knowledge and responsibility of early employees:
None of the early Alameda employees who witnessed Bankman-Fried’s behavior years earlier say they anticipated this level of alleged criminal fraud. There was no “smoking gun,” as one put it, that revealed specific examples of lawbreaking. Even if they knew Bankman-Fried was dishonest and unethical, they say, none of them could have foreseen a fraud of this scope.
… which really doesn’t sound to me like it’s blaming those early employees for what happened. If anything, they come across as the heroes of the story!
In contrast, what seems to be particularly highlighted in the article is Will MacAskill’s association with Sam:
Even after Bankman-Fried left the board of CEA, he retained MacAskill’s support, both in public and private. In a 2022 interview on the 80,000 Hours podcast, MacAskill describes himself as “remarkably aligned with Sam,” and said the FTX Future Fund could be a “an enormous inflection point for EA.” FTX advertisements used the language of effective altruism. “I’m on crypto because I want to make the biggest global impact for good,” read one FTX ad, which featured a photo of Bankman-Fried.
So the thesis of the article seems to me more like, “EA leaders (esp. Will) should have known this guy was sketchy and stayed away.” rather than “EA leaders should have prevented the FTX fraud.”

ESRogs Feb 13, 2023, 7:50 PM
40 points
8 ∶ 1
in reply to: ftxthrowaway33’s comment on: A personal reflection on SBF
FWIW, I think such a postmortem should start w/ the manner in which Sam left JS. As far as I’m aware, that was the first sign of any sketchiness, several months before the 2018 Alameda walkout.
Some characteristics apparent at the time:
- joining CEA as “director of development” which looks like it was a ruse to avoid JS learning about true intentions
- hiring away young traders who were in JS’s pipeline at the time
I believe these were perfectly legal, but to me they look like the first signs that SBF was inclined to:
- choose the (naive) utilitarian path over the virtuous one
- risk destroying a common resource (good will / symbiotic relationship between JS and EA) for the sake of a potential prize
These were also the first opportunities I’m aware of that the rest of us had to push back and draw a harder line in favor of virtuous / common-sense ethical behavior.
If we want to analyze what we as a community did wrong, this to me looks like the first place to start.
What links here?
- We need an independent investigation into how EA leadership has handled SBF and FTX by AnonymousEAForumAccount (Jul 24, 2024, 3:24 AM; 141 points)

ESRogs Feb 4, 2023, 9:46 PM
15 points
7 ∶ 0
on: Criticism Thread: What things should OpenPhil improve on?
In the past two years, the technical alignment organisations which have received substantial funding include:
- Anthropic (The president of Anthropic is the wife of Open Philanthropy’s CEO. The CEO of Anthropic is the brother-in-law of Open Philanthropy’s CEO.)
In context it sounds like you’re saying that Open Phil funded Anthropic, but as far as I am aware that is simply not true.
I think maybe what you meant to say is that, “These orgs that have gotten substantial funding tend to have ties to Open Phil, whether OP was the funder or not.” Might be worth editing the post to make that more explicit, so it’s clear whether you’re alleging a conflict of interest or not.

ESRogs Jan 15, 2023, 3:03 PM
27 points
10 ∶ 2
in reply to: Miles_Brundage’s comment on: Thread for discussing Bostrom’s email and apology
I’ll limit myself to one (multi-part) follow-up question for now —
Suppose someone in our community decides not to defer to the claimed “scientific consensus” on this issue (which I’ve seen claimed both ways), and looks into the matter themselves, and, for whatever reason, comes to the opposite conclusion that you do. What advice would you have for this person?
I think this is a relevant question because, based in part on comments and votes, I get the impression that a significant number of people in our community are in this position (maybe more so on the rationalist side?).
Let’s assume they try to distinguish between the two senses of “racism” that you mention, and try to treat all people respectfully and fairly. They don’t make a point of trumpeting their conclusion, since it’s not likely to make people feel good, and is generally not very helpful since we interact with individuals rather than distributions, as you say.
Let’s say they also try to examine their own biases and take into account how that might have influenced how they interpreted various claims and pieces of data. But after doing that, their honest assessment is still the same.
Beyond not broadcasting their view, and trying to treat people fairly and respectfully, would you say that they should go further, and pretend not to have reached the conclusion that they did, if it ever comes up?
Would you have any other advice for them, other than maybe something like, “Check your work again. You must have made a mistake. There’s an error in your thinking somewhere.”?

ESRogs Jan 14, 2023, 11:24 PM
8 points
3 ∶ 0
in reply to: Miles_Brundage’s comment on: Thread for discussing Bostrom’s email and apology
Thanks, I appreciate the thoughtful response!

ESRogs Jan 14, 2023, 1:11 PM
14 points
5 ∶ 0
in reply to: Miles_Brundage’s comment on: Thread for discussing Bostrom’s email and apology
Generalizing a lot, it seems that “normie EAs” (IMO correctly) see glaring problems with Bostrom’s statement and want this incident to serve as a teachable moment
1. As a “rationalist-EA”, I would be curious if you could summarize what lessons you think should be drawn from this teachable moment (or link to such a summary that you endorse).
2. In particular, do you disagree with the current top comment on this post?
  1. (To me, their Q1 seems like it highlights what should be the key lesson. While their Q2 provides important context that mitigates how censorious we should be in our response.)

ESRogs Jan 14, 2023, 3:24 AM
8 points
2 ∶ 1
in reply to: J S’s comment on: A personal response to Nick Bostrom’s “Apology for an Old Email”

I think there’s evidence that both apologies are insincere, albeit for different reasons (though that may not be clear).

You literally listed the timeframe as a reason (among others) to reject both apologies.

Here are your words again:

The fact that Bostrom’s statement comes 26 years after the post in question does little to support the idea that the apology might be motivated by genuine remorse.

and:

In my eyes, this timeframe really undermines the credibility of his previous apology, to the point of making it irrelevant. If you claim to reject views just 24 hours after endorsing them so clearly, I just can’t take your word seriously.

Perhaps your other points are valid. What I’m quibbling with is just having it both ways on whether a quick turnaround or long delay indicates an insincere apology (just based on the timeframe). You’ve claimed both in this thread, and I don’t think that’s fair.

ESRogs Jan 13, 2023, 8:44 PM
28 points
15 ∶ 3
in reply to: J S’s comment on: A personal response to Nick Bostrom’s “Apology for an Old Email”
How can both a 24 hour turnaround and a 26 year delay be evidence of an insincere apology? Where is the apology delay sweet spot in your eyes — one week later? A month later?
Maybe you think he should have apologized once a year every year on the anniversary of the email?
Sorry for snarky tone, but I feel that being in the business of nitpicking and rejecting apologies is quite a bad policy.

ESRogs Jan 13, 2023, 7:11 PM
41 points
16 ∶ 2
in reply to: J S’s comment on: A personal response to Nick Bostrom’s “Apology for an Old Email”

The fact that Bostrom’s statement comes 26 years after the post in question does little to support the idea that the apology might be motivated by genuine remorse.

Did you miss the fact that he also apologized within 24 hours of the original email?

ESRogs Dec 15, 2022, 8:01 AM
10 points
4 ∶ 0
in reply to: jai’s comment on: Why did CEA buy Wytham Abbey?

Nit: I was very explicitly asking why not sell, not suggesting a commitment to sell; I don’t appreciate the rhetorical pivot to argue against a point I was not making.

I don’t get this nit. Wasn’t Oliver’s comment straightforwardly answering your question, “Why not sell it now?” by giving an argument against selling it now?

How is that a pivot? He added the word “commiting”, but I don’t see how that changes the substance. I think he was just emphasizing what would be lost if we sold now without waiting for more info. Which seems like a perfectly valid answer to the question you asked!

ESRogs Nov 16, 2022, 11:13 PM
5 points
3 ∶ 0
in reply to: Agustín Covarrubias 🔸’s comment on: Kelsey Piper’s recent interview of SBF
I had a similar impression. Some related thoughts here.

ESRogs Nov 16, 2022, 11:06 PM
63 points
20 ∶ 1
on: Kelsey Piper’s recent interview of SBF
Copying over some comments I made on Twitter, in response to someone suggesting that Sam now appears to be “a sociopath who never gave a toss about EA or its ideals”:

He does seem pretty sociopathic, but it’s still unclear to me whether he really cared about EA.

I think it’s totally possible that he genuinely wanted to improve the world by funding EA causes, and is also a narcissistic liar who is unwilling to place limits on his own behavior.
As Jess Riedel pointed out to me, it looks like Bill Gates ruthlessly exploited his monopoly in the 90s, and also genuinely tried to do good with his money in the 2000s. Trying to cause good things to happen is totally compatible with also doing bad things.
I think it’s important for us to keep this possibility in mind. Otherwise I think we’re more likely to fail to question and put limits on our own behavior, since we’re confident our intentions are good.
What links here?
- ESRogs's comment on Kelsey Piper’s recent interview of SBF by Agustín Covarrubias 🔸 (Nov 16, 2022, 11:13 PM; 5 points)

ESRogs Nov 16, 2022, 7:41 PM
3 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: Habryka [Deactivated]’s comment on: Some important questions for the EA Leadership
there is a thing where if you say stuff that seems weird from an EA framework this can come across as cringe to some people, and I do hate a bunch of those cringe reactions, and I think think it contributes a lot to conformity
Can you give an example (even a made up one) of the kind of thing you have in mind here? What kinds of things sound weird and cringy to someone operating within an EA framework, but are actually valuable from an EA perspective?
(Like, play-pumps-but-they-actually-work-this-time? Or some kind of crypto thing that looks like a scam but isn’t? Or… what?)

ESRogs

Paul Chris­ti­ano on Dwarkesh Podcast

Paul Christiano on Dwarkesh Podcast