I don’t think background rate is relevant here. I was contesting your claim that ‘the people who are most impactful within EA have both high alignment and high competence’. It depends on what you mean ‘within EA’ I guess. If you mean ‘people who openly espouse EA ideas’, then the ‘high alignment’ seems uninterestingly true almost by definition. If you mean ‘people who are doing altruistic work effectively’ then Gates and Musk are , IMO, strong enough counterpoints to falsify the claim.
I don’t think background rate is relevant here. I was contesting your claim that ‘the people who are most impactful within EA have both high alignment and high competence’. It depends on what you mean ‘within EA’ I guess. If you mean ‘people who openly espouse EA ideas’, then the ‘high alignment’ seems uninterestingly true almost by definition. If you mean ‘people who are doing altruistic work effectively’ then Gates and Musk are , IMO, strong enough counterpoints to falsify the claim.
There are many/most people who openly espouse EA ideas who I do not consider highly aligned.