a rhetorical move that introduces huge moral stakes into the world-view in order to push people into drastically altering their actions and priorities
What is the definition youād prefer people to stick to? Something like ābeing pushed into actions that have a very low probability of producing value, because the reward would be extremely high in the unlikely event they did work outā?
The Drowning Child argument doesnāt seem like an example of Pascalās Mugging, but Wikipedia gives the example of:
āgive me five dollars, or Iāll use my magic powers from outside the Matrix to run a Turing machine that simulates and kills 3 āāāā 3ā
being pushed into actions that have a very low probability of producing value, because the reward would be extremely high in the unlikely event they did work out
I havenāt watched the video, but I assumed itās going to say āAI Safety is not a Pascalās Mugging because the probability of AI x-risk is nontrivially high.ā So someone who comes into the video with the assumption that AI risk is a clear Pascalās Mugging since they view it as āa rhetorical move that introduces huge moral stakes into the world-view in order to push people into drastically altering their actions and prioritiesā would be pretty unhappy with the video and think that there was a bait-and-switch.
What is the definition youād prefer people to stick to? Something like ābeing pushed into actions that have a very low probability of producing value, because the reward would be extremely high in the unlikely event they did work outā?
The Drowning Child argument doesnāt seem like an example of Pascalās Mugging, but Wikipedia gives the example of:
and I think recent posts like The AI Messiah are gesturing at something like that (see, even, this video from the comments on that post: Is AI Safety a Pascalās Mugging?).
Yes this is the definition I would prefer.
I havenāt watched the video, but I assumed itās going to say āAI Safety is not a Pascalās Mugging because the probability of AI x-risk is nontrivially high.ā So someone who comes into the video with the assumption that AI risk is a clear Pascalās Mugging since they view it as āa rhetorical move that introduces huge moral stakes into the world-view in order to push people into drastically altering their actions and prioritiesā would be pretty unhappy with the video and think that there was a bait-and-switch.