I’m not saying you need to solve the problem, I’m saying you should take the problem into account in your cost calculations, instead of assuming it will be solved.
In the next version of the article, I will present general equation in which will try to answer all these concerns. It will be (price of the experiment)(probability of success) + indirect benefits of experiment - (fixed price of metformin pills for life)(number of people)(share of adopters)(probability of success of the experiment) - unexpected side effects—growth of food consumption because of higher population. Anything lost?
I’m not quite sure what this equation is meant to be calculating. If it is meant to be $ per life saved it should be something like:
Direct effects:
(price of the experiment)/((probability of success)*(lives saved assuming e.g. 10% adoption))
(Note the division is very important here! You missed it in your comment, but it is not clear at all what you would be estimating without it.)
Your estimate of the indirect costs seems right to me, although in the case of:
growth of food consumption because of higher population
I would probably not include this level of secondary effect, since these people are also economically productive etc. so it being very hard to estimate.
I’m not saying you need to solve the problem, I’m saying you should take the problem into account in your cost calculations, instead of assuming it will be solved.
In the next version of the article, I will present general equation in which will try to answer all these concerns. It will be (price of the experiment)(probability of success) + indirect benefits of experiment - (fixed price of metformin pills for life)(number of people)(share of adopters)(probability of success of the experiment) - unexpected side effects—growth of food consumption because of higher population. Anything lost?
I’m not quite sure what this equation is meant to be calculating. If it is meant to be $ per life saved it should be something like:
Direct effects: (price of the experiment)/((probability of success)*(lives saved assuming e.g. 10% adoption))
(Note the division is very important here! You missed it in your comment, but it is not clear at all what you would be estimating without it.)
Your estimate of the indirect costs seems right to me, although in the case of:
I would probably not include this level of secondary effect, since these people are also economically productive etc. so it being very hard to estimate.