Thanks for these. Super interesting credences here, 19% (that health organisations will conclude lab origin) to 83% (that gain of function was in fact contributory). I guess the strikingly wide range suggests genuine uncertainty. Watch this space with interest.
Relevant external predictions:
Bayesian analysis on Rootclaim
Metaculus questions on
Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei? (Note that the resolution criteria here is weird, so I’d trust the final probabilities less than the reasoning/links people gave).
Credible claim by 2024 that COVID-19 likely originated in a lab?
Thanks for these. Super interesting credences here, 19% (that health organisations will conclude lab origin) to 83% (that gain of function was in fact contributory). I guess the strikingly wide range suggests genuine uncertainty. Watch this space with interest.