I think I’m also surprised by the difference between 2 and 3. Unless this is driven primarily by the possibility of a month-long disease (which doesn’t weaken the regime)? (Maybe also it takes a while to depose someone in some cases? So e.g. he might go on a couple-month-long “holiday” while they figure things out?)
I think I’m also surprised by the difference between 2 and 3
I view deposing as involving something internal, quick, and forceful. I think if Putin retires willingly / goes quietly (even if under duress), this would count as him leaving power without being deposed. Likewise, if he died but not because of assassination, that wouldn’t count as being deposed.
This is really cool! Thank you for sharing. I was slightly surprised by how low these are:
Ukraine-Russia war is over by EOY 2023 — 20%
Putin deposed by EOY 2023 — 5%
Putin leaving power by any means for at least 30 consecutive days (with start date in 2023) — 10%
I think I’m also surprised by the difference between 2 and 3. Unless this is driven primarily by the possibility of a month-long disease (which doesn’t weaken the regime)? (Maybe also it takes a while to depose someone in some cases? So e.g. he might go on a couple-month-long “holiday” while they figure things out?)
And these are really interesting:
There is credible media reporting by EOM April 2024 that at least $1 trillion in the 2023 US GDP is attributed to large language models — 5%
By EOY 2024 there is credible reporting of a lawsuit related to an unauthorized virtual recreation of a person — 10%
It would be possible, at the push of a button, to “replace Neo in the Matrix with Roger Rabbit, and update the whole movie for coherence” by EOY 2027 —30%
I view deposing as involving something internal, quick, and forceful. I think if Putin retires willingly / goes quietly (even if under duress), this would count as him leaving power without being deposed. Likewise, if he died but not because of assassination, that wouldn’t count as being deposed.