There is a lot of research done in forensic psychology/psychiatry as to which offenders have which rates of reoffending (and how that rate can be reduced). There are instruments like the HCR20, the Psychopathy Checklist, the SVR20, etc.
In Germany there are nice statistics about which released groups do commit the same/different crimes with which rates of recidivism. I am pretty sure, other countries have comparable stats.
The rates are well below 50%, but we only have some 80 persons out of a hundred thousand behind bars, in the united states that number is nearly ten times higher, so people get faster into those (mostly private?/ profit orientated?) prisons.
My guess would be: get fewer people into prisons (than in the united states), get them therapy if needed (for example reasoning and rehabilitation aka r&r) and most important: give them good aftercare (possibilities).
Ah, I think we’ve both made the same mistake (believing recidivism rates were similar across countries). It appears recidivism has quite a large range.
There is a lot of research done in forensic psychology/psychiatry as to which offenders have which rates of reoffending (and how that rate can be reduced). There are instruments like the HCR20, the Psychopathy Checklist, the SVR20, etc. In Germany there are nice statistics about which released groups do commit the same/different crimes with which rates of recidivism. I am pretty sure, other countries have comparable stats. The rates are well below 50%, but we only have some 80 persons out of a hundred thousand behind bars, in the united states that number is nearly ten times higher, so people get faster into those (mostly private?/ profit orientated?) prisons. My guess would be: get fewer people into prisons (than in the united states), get them therapy if needed (for example reasoning and rehabilitation aka r&r) and most important: give them good aftercare (possibilities).
Ah, I think we’ve both made the same mistake (believing recidivism rates were similar across countries). It appears recidivism has quite a large range.
“For all reported outcomes, a 2-year follow-up period was the most commonly used. The 2-year rearrest rates ranged from 26% (Singapore) to 60% (USA), two-year reconviction rates ranged from 20% (Norway) to 63% (Denmark), and two-year reimprisonment rates ranged from 14% (USA – Oregon) to 43% (Canada – Quebec, New Zealand) (see Table 3 for 2-year rates from included countries).”
In any case, my argument doesn’t hinge on what the true statistics are.