Also, wouldn’t the above ‘x-risk discount rate’ be 2% rather than 0.2%?
There was a typo in my answer before: (1 - ((1 − 1⁄6)^(1/100)) = 0.0018) which is ~0.2% (not 0.2), and is a fair amount smaller than the discount rate we actually used (3.5%). Still, if you assigned a greater probability of existential risk this century than Ord does, you could end up with a (potentially much) higher discount rate. Alternatively, even with a high existential risk estimate, if you thought we were going to find more and more cost-effective giving opportunities as time goes on, then at least for the purpose of our impact evaluation, these effects could cancel out.
I think if we spent more time trying to come to an all-things-considered view on this topic, we’d still be left with considerable uncertainty, and so I think it was the right call for us to just acknowledge to take the pragmatic approach of deferring to the Green Book.
In terms of the general tension between potentially high x-risk and the chance of transformative AI, I can only speak personally (not on behalf of GWWC). It’s something on my mind, but it’s unclear to me what exactly the tension is. I still think it’s great to move money to effective charities across a range of impactful causes, and I’m excited about building a culture of giving significantly and effectively throughout one’s life (i.e., via the Pledge). I don’t think GWWC should pivot and become specifically focused on one cause (e.g., AI) and otherwise I’m not sure exactly what the potential for transformative AI should imply for GWWC.
I really think that the discount rate equation used just doesn’t capture my intuitions about how impactful x-risk would be, but I think I will just leave it at that and stop bugging you (thanks for the thoughtful response again).
Of course, it seems at some point you have to stop the recursive utilitarian dilemma of analysis paralysis and probably in that report this is a good place.
Unsure as well, I think I’m at the point of waiting, and doing my best to learn, since I think any claims as to just how transformative AI might be regarding the economy and even how we come to solve problems is a matter of respecting probabilities that I’m uncertain about… to the extent that I guess having people just think about it is all I can ask (which it seems both you and GWWC are doing, in addition to all the impactful work y’all are doing—thank you again.)
No problem!
Regarding:
There was a typo in my answer before: (1 - ((1 − 1⁄6)^(1/100)) = 0.0018) which is ~0.2% (not 0.2), and is a fair amount smaller than the discount rate we actually used (3.5%). Still, if you assigned a greater probability of existential risk this century than Ord does, you could end up with a (potentially much) higher discount rate. Alternatively, even with a high existential risk estimate, if you thought we were going to find more and more cost-effective giving opportunities as time goes on, then at least for the purpose of our impact evaluation, these effects could cancel out.
I think if we spent more time trying to come to an all-things-considered view on this topic, we’d still be left with considerable uncertainty, and so I think it was the right call for us to just acknowledge to take the pragmatic approach of deferring to the Green Book.
In terms of the general tension between potentially high x-risk and the chance of transformative AI, I can only speak personally (not on behalf of GWWC). It’s something on my mind, but it’s unclear to me what exactly the tension is. I still think it’s great to move money to effective charities across a range of impactful causes, and I’m excited about building a culture of giving significantly and effectively throughout one’s life (i.e., via the Pledge). I don’t think GWWC should pivot and become specifically focused on one cause (e.g., AI) and otherwise I’m not sure exactly what the potential for transformative AI should imply for GWWC.
I really think that the discount rate equation used just doesn’t capture my intuitions about how impactful x-risk would be, but I think I will just leave it at that and stop bugging you (thanks for the thoughtful response again).
Of course, it seems at some point you have to stop the recursive utilitarian dilemma of analysis paralysis and probably in that report this is a good place.
Unsure as well, I think I’m at the point of waiting, and doing my best to learn, since I think any claims as to just how transformative AI might be regarding the economy and even how we come to solve problems is a matter of respecting probabilities that I’m uncertain about… to the extent that I guess having people just think about it is all I can ask (which it seems both you and GWWC are doing, in addition to all the impactful work y’all are doing—thank you again.)