Now that I’ve realised this, I will remove the entire baseline consumption consideration. As projecting forward I assume GiveDirectly will just get better at selecting poor households to counteract the fact that they should be richer. Thanks for pointing this out!
A good time to mention that I thought this is really great work, and nice spotting of gaps in the original analysis (even if specifically this seem to have been addressed, it wasn’t at all clear from the CEA spreadsheet) :)
Now that I’ve realised this, I will remove the entire baseline consumption consideration. As projecting forward I assume GiveDirectly will just get better at selecting poor households to counteract the fact that they should be richer. Thanks for pointing this out!
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A good time to mention that I thought this is really great work, and nice spotting of gaps in the original analysis (even if specifically this seem to have been addressed, it wasn’t at all clear from the CEA spreadsheet) :)