I want to be clear that I see risk aversion as axiomatic. In my view, there is no “correct” level of risk aversion. Various attitudes to risk will involve biting various bullets (St Petersburg paradox on the one side, concluding that lives have diminishing value on the other side), but I view risk preferences as premises rather than conclusions that need to be justified.
I don’t actually think moral weights are premises. However, I think in practice our best guesses on moral weights are so uninformative that they don’t admit any better strategy than hedging, given my risk attitudes. (That’s the view expressed in the quote in my original comment.) This is not a bedrock belief. My views have shifted over time (in 2018 I would have scoffed at the idea of THL and AMF being even in the same welfare range), and will probably continue to shift.
If it is hard to answer these questions, is there a risk of your risk aversion not being supported by seemingly self-evident assumptions[3], and instead being a way of formalising/rationalising your pre-formed intuitions about cause prioritisation?
Yes, I am formalizing my intuitions about cause prioritization. In particular, I am formalizing my main cruxes with animal welfare—risk aversion and moral weights. (These aren’t even cruxes with “we should fund AW”, they are cruxes only with “AW dominates GHD”. I do think we should reallocate funding from GHD to AW on the margin.)
Is my risk aversion just a guise for my preference that GHD should get lots of money? I comfortably admit that my choice to personally work on GHD is a function of my background and skillset. I was a person from a developing country, and a development economist, before I was an EA. But risk aversion is a universal preference descriptively – it shouldn’t be a high bar to believe that I’m actually just a risk averse person.
At the end of the day, I hold the normie belief that good things are good. Children not dying of malaria is good. Chickens not living in cages is good. Philosophical gotchas and fragile calculations can supplement that belief but not replace it.
My views have shifted over time (in 2018 I would have scoffed at the idea of THL and AMF being even in the same welfare range), and will probably continue to shift.
Are you saying that you are more likely than not to update towards animal welfare, or that you expect to update towards animal welfare? The former is fine. If the latter, it makes sense for you to update all the way now (one should not expect future beliefs to differ from past beliefs).
I don’t actually think moral weights are premises.
Nice to know.
Is my risk aversion just a guise for my preference that GHD should get lots of money? I comfortably admit that my choice to personally work on GHD is a function of my background and skillset.
One could work in a certain area, but support moving marginal donations from that area to animal welfare[1], as you just illustrated:
I do think we should reallocate funding from GHD to AW on the margin.
Thanks for being transparent about this! I think it would be good for more people like you, who do not think spending on animal welfare should increase a lot, to clarify what they believe is more cost-effective at the margin (as this is what matters in practice).
But risk aversion is a universal preference descriptively – it shouldn’t be a high bar to believe that I’m actually just a risk averse person.
Right, but risk aversion with respect to resources makes sense because welfare increases sublinearly with resources. I assume people are less risk averse with respect to welfare. Even if people are significantly risk averse with respect to welfare, I do not think we should elevate this to being normative. People also discount the welfare of their future selves and foreigners. People in and governments of high income countries could argue they are already doing something pretty close to optimal with respect to supporting people in extreme poverty given their decriptive preferences. This may be right, but I would say such preferences are misguided, and that they should be much more impartial with respect to nationality.
At the end of the day, I hold the normie belief that good things are good. Children not dying of malaria is good. Chickens not living in cages is good. Philosophical gotchas and fragile calculations can supplement that belief but not replace it.
I think the vast majority of people arguing that animal welfare should receive way more funding would agree with the above. I certainly do. I just do not think the calculations are fragile to the extent that the current porfolio can be considered anywhere close to optimal. I Fermi estimated buying organic eggs is 2.11 times as cost-effective as donating to GiveWell’s top charities[2], and I think that is far from the most cost-effective interventions in the space. which is what you suggest based on your guess that corporate campaigns for chicken welfare are 0.5 to 1.5 times as cost-effective as GiveWell’s top charities.
I support increasing donations to animal welfare, but I have not been paid for my work in the area. Personal fit plays much less of a role in deciding donations than in deciding jobs. It still plays some role because one could be better suited to assess donation opportunities in some areas.
My estimate relies on Rethink Priorities’ median welfare range for chicken, but it does not make any use of Saulius’ estimates, which are one of your 2 major sources of scepticism.
I want to be clear that I see risk aversion as axiomatic. In my view, there is no “correct” level of risk aversion. Various attitudes to risk will involve biting various bullets (St Petersburg paradox on the one side, concluding that lives have diminishing value on the other side), but I view risk preferences as premises rather than conclusions that need to be justified.
I don’t actually think moral weights are premises. However, I think in practice our best guesses on moral weights are so uninformative that they don’t admit any better strategy than hedging, given my risk attitudes. (That’s the view expressed in the quote in my original comment.) This is not a bedrock belief. My views have shifted over time (in 2018 I would have scoffed at the idea of THL and AMF being even in the same welfare range), and will probably continue to shift.
Yes, I am formalizing my intuitions about cause prioritization. In particular, I am formalizing my main cruxes with animal welfare—risk aversion and moral weights. (These aren’t even cruxes with “we should fund AW”, they are cruxes only with “AW dominates GHD”. I do think we should reallocate funding from GHD to AW on the margin.)
Is my risk aversion just a guise for my preference that GHD should get lots of money? I comfortably admit that my choice to personally work on GHD is a function of my background and skillset. I was a person from a developing country, and a development economist, before I was an EA. But risk aversion is a universal preference descriptively – it shouldn’t be a high bar to believe that I’m actually just a risk averse person.
At the end of the day, I hold the normie belief that good things are good. Children not dying of malaria is good. Chickens not living in cages is good. Philosophical gotchas and fragile calculations can supplement that belief but not replace it.
Thanks for clarifying.
Are you saying that you are more likely than not to update towards animal welfare, or that you expect to update towards animal welfare? The former is fine. If the latter, it makes sense for you to update all the way now (one should not expect future beliefs to differ from past beliefs).
Nice to know.
One could work in a certain area, but support moving marginal donations from that area to animal welfare[1], as you just illustrated:
Thanks for being transparent about this! I think it would be good for more people like you, who do not think spending on animal welfare should increase a lot, to clarify what they believe is more cost-effective at the margin (as this is what matters in practice).
Right, but risk aversion with respect to resources makes sense because welfare increases sublinearly with resources. I assume people are less risk averse with respect to welfare. Even if people are significantly risk averse with respect to welfare, I do not think we should elevate this to being normative. People also discount the welfare of their future selves and foreigners. People in and governments of high income countries could argue they are already doing something pretty close to optimal with respect to supporting people in extreme poverty given their decriptive preferences. This may be right, but I would say such preferences are misguided, and that they should be much more impartial with respect to nationality.
I think the vast majority of people arguing that animal welfare should receive way more funding would agree with the above. I certainly do. I just do not think the calculations are fragile to the extent that the current porfolio can be considered anywhere close to optimal. I Fermi estimated buying organic eggs is 2.11 times as cost-effective as donating to GiveWell’s top charities[2], and I think that is far from the most cost-effective interventions in the space. which is what you suggest based on your guess that corporate campaigns for chicken welfare are 0.5 to 1.5 times as cost-effective as GiveWell’s top charities.
I support increasing donations to animal welfare, but I have not been paid for my work in the area. Personal fit plays much less of a role in deciding donations than in deciding jobs. It still plays some role because one could be better suited to assess donation opportunities in some areas.
My estimate relies on Rethink Priorities’ median welfare range for chicken, but it does not make any use of Saulius’ estimates, which are one of your 2 major sources of scepticism.