Wait that’s so confusing. What? Have I missed something? I’m just going to flail in writing here in hopes that someone can explain why the eff Binance would not want to acquire it’s largest competitor for peanuts.
I think you’re missing that (1) FTX is not Binance’s biggest competitor now that what has happened has happened, and (2) it’s not just about the face cost of the acquisition—there may be a further cost to Binance from assuming FTX’s debt. One imagines it may not be immediately clear whether acquiring new customers and stabilising the markets is worth the total costs, when (2) is included.
Because FTX is almost certainly morass of worthless assets and enormous liabilities, totalling $5bn or more. The brand also will be worth very little. And Binance may not feel the political capital it would acquire from making depositors whole is worth the risks.
What news has there been in the last few hours that has made the markets update to thinking ~80% FTX will fail (become insolvent; deal with Binance will not happen)?
Folks have mentioned the Polymarket question on whether Binance will put out of the FTX deal, but there’s a separate question on whether FTX will become insolvent by end of year.
Wait that’s so confusing. What? Have I missed something? I’m just going to flail in writing here in hopes that someone can explain why the eff Binance would not want to acquire it’s largest competitor for peanuts.
I think you’re missing that (1) FTX is not Binance’s biggest competitor now that what has happened has happened, and (2) it’s not just about the face cost of the acquisition—there may be a further cost to Binance from assuming FTX’s debt. One imagines it may not be immediately clear whether acquiring new customers and stabilising the markets is worth the total costs, when (2) is included.
Because FTX is almost certainly morass of worthless assets and enormous liabilities, totalling $5bn or more. The brand also will be worth very little. And Binance may not feel the political capital it would acquire from making depositors whole is worth the risks.
What news has there been in the last few hours that has made the markets update to thinking ~80% FTX will fail (become insolvent; deal with Binance will not happen)?
In the last few hours, Coindesk reported that Binance is “strongly leading towards” not doing the FTX acquisition.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/09/binance-is-strongly-leaning-toward-scrapping-ftx-rescue-takeover-after-first-glance-at-books-source/
See also https://polymarket.com/market/will-binance-pull-out-of-their-ftx-deal and