Thanks for the announcement, Toby! Thanks for doing an AMA, Lewis!
What are your best guesses for the mean, and 5th and 95th percentiles of the marginal cost-effectiveness of Open Philanthropy’s (OP’s) animal welfare grants in DALY/$? For reference:
I arrived at a mean/expected marginal cost-effectiveness of corporate campaigns for chicken welfare of 15.0 DALY/$ (= 8.20*2.10*0.870), assuming:
Campaigns affect 8.20 chicken-years per $ (= 41*1/5), multiplying:
Saulius Šimčikas’ estimate of 41 chicken-years per $.
An adjustment factor of 1⁄5, since OP thinks “the marginal FAW [farmed animal welfare] funding opportunity is ~1/5th as cost-effective as the average from Saulius’ analysis [which is linked just above]”.
An improvement in chicken welfare per time of 2.10 times the intensity of the mean human experience, as I estimated for moving broilers from a conventional to a reformed scenario based on Rethink Priorities’ median welfare range for chickens of 0.332.
A ratio between humans’ healthy and total life expectancy at birth in 2016 of 87.0 % (= 63.1/72.5).
The above 15.0 DALY/$ is 1.50 k times the 0.01 DALY/$ (= 50/(5*10^3)) respecting GiveWell’s top charities, which avert around 50 DALY for 5 k$.
Thanks for the announcement, Toby! Thanks for doing an AMA, Lewis!
What are your best guesses for the mean, and 5th and 95th percentiles of the marginal cost-effectiveness of Open Philanthropy’s (OP’s) animal welfare grants in DALY/$? For reference:
I arrived at a mean/expected marginal cost-effectiveness of corporate campaigns for chicken welfare of 15.0 DALY/$ (= 8.20*2.10*0.870), assuming:
Campaigns affect 8.20 chicken-years per $ (= 41*1/5), multiplying:
Saulius Šimčikas’ estimate of 41 chicken-years per $.
An adjustment factor of 1⁄5, since OP thinks “the marginal FAW [farmed animal welfare] funding opportunity is ~1/5th as cost-effective as the average from Saulius’ analysis [which is linked just above]”.
An improvement in chicken welfare per time of 2.10 times the intensity of the mean human experience, as I estimated for moving broilers from a conventional to a reformed scenario based on Rethink Priorities’ median welfare range for chickens of 0.332.
A ratio between humans’ healthy and total life expectancy at birth in 2016 of 87.0 % (= 63.1/72.5).
The above 15.0 DALY/$ is 1.50 k times the 0.01 DALY/$ (= 50/(5*10^3)) respecting GiveWell’s top charities, which avert around 50 DALY for 5 k$.