In the case AIs are owned by humans, their wages will accrue to their owners, who will be humans.
I imagine some of the question would be “how monopolistic will these conditions be?” If there’s one monopoly, they’d charge a ton, and I’d expect them to quickly dominate the entire world.
If there’s “perfect competition”, I’d expect this area to be far cheaper.
Right now LLMs seem much closer to “perfect competition” to me—companies are losing money selling them (I’m quite sure). I’m not sure what to expect going forwards. I assume that people won’t allow 1-2 companies to just start owning the entire economy, but it is a possibility. (This is basically a Decisive Strategic Advantage, at that point)
All that said, I don’t imagine the period I’m describing lasting all too long. Once humans become simulated well, and we really reach TAI++, lots of bets are off. It seems really tough to have a great model of that world, outside of “humans basically split up light cone, by dividing the sources of production, which will basically be AIs”[1]
I agree that humans will basically stop being useful at that point.
But if that point is far away (40-90 years), this could be enough time for many humans to make a lot of that money/capital, for that time. [1] “Split up” could mean “The CCP gets all of it”
Basically, I naively expect there to be some period where we have a lot of AI, but humans are still getting paid a lot—followed by some point where humans just altogether stop. (unless weird lock-in happens)
I imagine some of the question would be “how monopolistic will these conditions be?” If there’s one monopoly, they’d charge a ton, and I’d expect them to quickly dominate the entire world.
If there’s “perfect competition”, I’d expect this area to be far cheaper.
Right now LLMs seem much closer to “perfect competition” to me—companies are losing money selling them (I’m quite sure). I’m not sure what to expect going forwards. I assume that people won’t allow 1-2 companies to just start owning the entire economy, but it is a possibility. (This is basically a Decisive Strategic Advantage, at that point)
All that said, I don’t imagine the period I’m describing lasting all too long. Once humans become simulated well, and we really reach TAI++, lots of bets are off. It seems really tough to have a great model of that world, outside of “humans basically split up light cone, by dividing the sources of production, which will basically be AIs”[1]
I agree that humans will basically stop being useful at that point.
But if that point is far away (40-90 years), this could be enough time for many humans to make a lot of that money/capital, for that time.
[1] “Split up” could mean “The CCP gets all of it”
Basically, I naively expect there to be some period where we have a lot of AI, but humans are still getting paid a lot—followed by some point where humans just altogether stop. (unless weird lock-in happens)