“That’s correct, but wouldn’t you say that looking at this empirical data can give a sense of how realistic it is that in the next decade(s) we will make a sharp turn for the better? I think this report of the EEB certainly makes a fair case that we won’t. Even if you don’t agree with the conclusion of the paper, it’s a bit easy to dismiss all the data (and the neutral, transparent way it was selected) along with it.”
Decoupling as a large-scale technological transformations requires (i) time and (ii) dedicated effort (public investment, private investment, induced technological change, etc..). Such effort has, for the most part, not existed for a long time so looking at historical data is not evidence of likely future rates. (I also think that when a scientific paper makes a logical mistake in the abstract that one should be pretty concerned about the quality of the paper, overall).
I think a better proxy for future rates of decoupling would, for example, be looking at how the changes in the cost of renewables have changed decarbonization trajectories (and rather massively reduced expected future emissions, we discuss this a bit here). Overall, it seems quite conceivable that the recent uptick in policy attention on climate will lead to much faster rates of decoupling than previously observed.
Irrespective of how optimistic or pessimistic one is on decoupling, the fact that the US and the EU are at most 15% of future emissions limits the potential of sufficiency unless one thinks sufficiency will be an attractive idea to the rest of the world, for the most part much energy-poorer than the US and EU. On the positive flipside this also means that failing at sufficiency / stricter domestic targets is not necessarily that relevant given that high-income countries have leverage on emissions far beyond their domestic emissions (more on this here).
It seems that you (and I suppose many with you) have accepted global warming of considerably more than 2°C, where I am still (in your view, I assume, naïvely) looking for ways to avoid that.
I think it’s striking how most people seem to treat our current behavior and desires and habits as a given, an unchangeable fact (this for instance also struck me reading Gates’ book); whereas I try to see the laws of physics, and its current ‘best effort’ implications regarding a maximum number of PPM of GHG in the atmosphere, as a given—and look for ways to stay below those thresholds using societal parameters—in this case, democracy.
Clearly in order to reach net zero emissions at some point, we need technological innovation and market forces. But if we want to stay well below 2°, preferably at 1,5°, waiting for those won’t cut it: during the coming decade(s), we would spend all of our remaining carbon budget to stay within those boundaries with some degree of certainty. Also, for 2050, all scenarios I’ve seen for my country Belgium include quite substantial behavioral changes on top of all (hoped for) technological changes. E.g.: https://klimaat.be/doc/climate-neutral-belgium-by-2050-report.pdf
In order to sufficiently reduce our emissions the coming decade(s), while working as quickly as possible on the technological advancements, we need behavioral changes. Sure enough, through current party-political means, this is unthinkable, as outlined above. Hence I propose here an alternative democratic tool which could help achieve doing what’s necessary. In principle, I currently don’t yet see a reason why this couldn’t work, on the time scale required: within a couple of years. It’s nothing more than an idea, a concept, for which I believe the time is ripe, which can spread extremely quickly. Technologically, it’s really not complex to implement, and practically it is also feasible. But of course, this is why I’m posting it here: it needs a lot more research and thinking, there are undoubtedly pitfalls which I haven’t yet thought of.
Indeed, every country will have to go through such a phase (presumably several iterations, e.g. every two or three years). By spreading the word of positive precedents, citizens and activists in all countries can demand them to be copied. It’s all a matter of spreading an idea. Even in autocratic regimes, the power of citizens is growing.
Although I understand that in the long run, the emissions still to be emitted by China, India and presumably large parts of Africa, through vast amounts of coal plants existing and still under construction, emissions this decade of ‘the West’ are on the same scale as those emitted by China and India—of the remaining carbon budget we’re depleting at 35 GT per year, we take an equal share. And given the Western living standard, it’s far easier (not to mention, given our historical weight in the problem, fairer, cfr. Hickel, 2020 [1]) for us to limit, through behavioral and consumption changes, e.g. the 15 tons/year CO2-footprint of the average American, than it would be to reduce the 7 tons/year CO2-footprint of a Chinese person through the same means.
It seems to me, in the long run, extremely, unthinkably unwise, for only just one human generation, to jeopardize the near-term future of humanity, the wellbeing of countless other conscious beings, and the stability of ecosystems in the coming decades, centuries, millennia, or longer. Just one generation has to make a ‘sacrifice’ (at least, something initially perceived as such, and promoted as such by certain political parties, lobbyists and other stakeholders) to stand a chance at staying well below 2° warming.
Of course, we need to let go of the gigantic misconceptions related to the effect of global warming on the economy, spread by Nordhaus et al (refuted by e.g. Keen, 2020 [2]), if we want to take seriously the importance of staying well below 2° warming...
Aside from the well described risks of more than 1,5° warming on the ecosystem, a factor which I believe is largely neglected is the potential social unrest caused by increasing polarization, precisely between those who want to make the behavioral changes to reduce our emissions the coming decade(s) and those who don’t… I believe new democratic tools, focussed on deliberation and participation, are the perfect antidode to such social unrest (and many other maladies of our time: reduced trust in politicians and democracy, general increasing polarization, the rise of fake news, etc) - read e.g. ‘Against Elections’ by Van Reybrouck, mentioned in OP.
Decoupling as a large-scale technological transformations requires (i) time and (ii) dedicated effort (public investment, private investment, induced technological change, etc..). Such effort has, for the most part, not existed for a long time so looking at historical data is not evidence of likely future rates. (I also think that when a scientific paper makes a logical mistake in the abstract that one should be pretty concerned about the quality of the paper, overall).
I think a better proxy for future rates of decoupling would, for example, be looking at how the changes in the cost of renewables have changed decarbonization trajectories (and rather massively reduced expected future emissions, we discuss this a bit here). Overall, it seems quite conceivable that the recent uptick in policy attention on climate will lead to much faster rates of decoupling than previously observed.
Irrespective of how optimistic or pessimistic one is on decoupling, the fact that the US and the EU are at most 15% of future emissions limits the potential of sufficiency unless one thinks sufficiency will be an attractive idea to the rest of the world, for the most part much energy-poorer than the US and EU. On the positive flipside this also means that failing at sufficiency / stricter domestic targets is not necessarily that relevant given that high-income countries have leverage on emissions far beyond their domestic emissions (more on this here).
It seems that you (and I suppose many with you) have accepted global warming of considerably more than 2°C, where I am still (in your view, I assume, naïvely) looking for ways to avoid that.
I think it’s striking how most people seem to treat our current behavior and desires and habits as a given, an unchangeable fact (this for instance also struck me reading Gates’ book); whereas I try to see the laws of physics, and its current ‘best effort’ implications regarding a maximum number of PPM of GHG in the atmosphere, as a given—and look for ways to stay below those thresholds using societal parameters—in this case, democracy.
Clearly in order to reach net zero emissions at some point, we need technological innovation and market forces. But if we want to stay well below 2°, preferably at 1,5°, waiting for those won’t cut it: during the coming decade(s), we would spend all of our remaining carbon budget to stay within those boundaries with some degree of certainty. Also, for 2050, all scenarios I’ve seen for my country Belgium include quite substantial behavioral changes on top of all (hoped for) technological changes. E.g.: https://klimaat.be/doc/climate-neutral-belgium-by-2050-report.pdf
In order to sufficiently reduce our emissions the coming decade(s), while working as quickly as possible on the technological advancements, we need behavioral changes. Sure enough, through current party-political means, this is unthinkable, as outlined above. Hence I propose here an alternative democratic tool which could help achieve doing what’s necessary. In principle, I currently don’t yet see a reason why this couldn’t work, on the time scale required: within a couple of years. It’s nothing more than an idea, a concept, for which I believe the time is ripe, which can spread extremely quickly. Technologically, it’s really not complex to implement, and practically it is also feasible. But of course, this is why I’m posting it here: it needs a lot more research and thinking, there are undoubtedly pitfalls which I haven’t yet thought of.
Indeed, every country will have to go through such a phase (presumably several iterations, e.g. every two or three years). By spreading the word of positive precedents, citizens and activists in all countries can demand them to be copied. It’s all a matter of spreading an idea. Even in autocratic regimes, the power of citizens is growing.
Although I understand that in the long run, the emissions still to be emitted by China, India and presumably large parts of Africa, through vast amounts of coal plants existing and still under construction, emissions this decade of ‘the West’ are on the same scale as those emitted by China and India—of the remaining carbon budget we’re depleting at 35 GT per year, we take an equal share. And given the Western living standard, it’s far easier (not to mention, given our historical weight in the problem, fairer, cfr. Hickel, 2020 [1]) for us to limit, through behavioral and consumption changes, e.g. the 15 tons/year CO2-footprint of the average American, than it would be to reduce the 7 tons/year CO2-footprint of a Chinese person through the same means.
It seems to me, in the long run, extremely, unthinkably unwise, for only just one human generation, to jeopardize the near-term future of humanity, the wellbeing of countless other conscious beings, and the stability of ecosystems in the coming decades, centuries, millennia, or longer. Just one generation has to make a ‘sacrifice’ (at least, something initially perceived as such, and promoted as such by certain political parties, lobbyists and other stakeholders) to stand a chance at staying well below 2° warming.
Of course, we need to let go of the gigantic misconceptions related to the effect of global warming on the economy, spread by Nordhaus et al (refuted by e.g. Keen, 2020 [2]), if we want to take seriously the importance of staying well below 2° warming...
Aside from the well described risks of more than 1,5° warming on the ecosystem, a factor which I believe is largely neglected is the potential social unrest caused by increasing polarization, precisely between those who want to make the behavioral changes to reduce our emissions the coming decade(s) and those who don’t… I believe new democratic tools, focussed on deliberation and participation, are the perfect antidode to such social unrest (and many other maladies of our time: reduced trust in politicians and democracy, general increasing polarization, the rise of fake news, etc) - read e.g. ‘Against Elections’ by Van Reybrouck, mentioned in OP.
[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30196-0/fulltext
[2] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1807856