It seems that you (and I suppose many with you) have accepted global warming of considerably more than 2°C, where I am still (in your view, I assume, naïvely) looking for ways to avoid that.
I think it’s striking how most people seem to treat our current behavior and desires and habits as a given, an unchangeable fact (this for instance also struck me reading Gates’ book); whereas I try to see the laws of physics, and its current ‘best effort’ implications regarding a maximum number of PPM of GHG in the atmosphere, as a given—and look for ways to stay below those thresholds using societal parameters—in this case, democracy.
Clearly in order to reach net zero emissions at some point, we need technological innovation and market forces. But if we want to stay well below 2°, preferably at 1,5°, waiting for those won’t cut it: during the coming decade(s), we would spend all of our remaining carbon budget to stay within those boundaries with some degree of certainty. Also, for 2050, all scenarios I’ve seen for my country Belgium include quite substantial behavioral changes on top of all (hoped for) technological changes. E.g.: https://klimaat.be/doc/climate-neutral-belgium-by-2050-report.pdf
In order to sufficiently reduce our emissions the coming decade(s), while working as quickly as possible on the technological advancements, we need behavioral changes. Sure enough, through current party-political means, this is unthinkable, as outlined above. Hence I propose here an alternative democratic tool which could help achieve doing what’s necessary. In principle, I currently don’t yet see a reason why this couldn’t work, on the time scale required: within a couple of years. It’s nothing more than an idea, a concept, for which I believe the time is ripe, which can spread extremely quickly. Technologically, it’s really not complex to implement, and practically it is also feasible. But of course, this is why I’m posting it here: it needs a lot more research and thinking, there are undoubtedly pitfalls which I haven’t yet thought of.
Indeed, every country will have to go through such a phase (presumably several iterations, e.g. every two or three years). By spreading the word of positive precedents, citizens and activists in all countries can demand them to be copied. It’s all a matter of spreading an idea. Even in autocratic regimes, the power of citizens is growing.
Although I understand that in the long run, the emissions still to be emitted by China, India and presumably large parts of Africa, through vast amounts of coal plants existing and still under construction, emissions this decade of ‘the West’ are on the same scale as those emitted by China and India—of the remaining carbon budget we’re depleting at 35 GT per year, we take an equal share. And given the Western living standard, it’s far easier (not to mention, given our historical weight in the problem, fairer, cfr. Hickel, 2020 [1]) for us to limit, through behavioral and consumption changes, e.g. the 15 tons/year CO2-footprint of the average American, than it would be to reduce the 7 tons/year CO2-footprint of a Chinese person through the same means.
It seems to me, in the long run, extremely, unthinkably unwise, for only just one human generation, to jeopardize the near-term future of humanity, the wellbeing of countless other conscious beings, and the stability of ecosystems in the coming decades, centuries, millennia, or longer. Just one generation has to make a ‘sacrifice’ (at least, something initially perceived as such, and promoted as such by certain political parties, lobbyists and other stakeholders) to stand a chance at staying well below 2° warming.
Of course, we need to let go of the gigantic misconceptions related to the effect of global warming on the economy, spread by Nordhaus et al (refuted by e.g. Keen, 2020 [2]), if we want to take seriously the importance of staying well below 2° warming...
Aside from the well described risks of more than 1,5° warming on the ecosystem, a factor which I believe is largely neglected is the potential social unrest caused by increasing polarization, precisely between those who want to make the behavioral changes to reduce our emissions the coming decade(s) and those who don’t… I believe new democratic tools, focussed on deliberation and participation, are the perfect antidode to such social unrest (and many other maladies of our time: reduced trust in politicians and democracy, general increasing polarization, the rise of fake news, etc) - read e.g. ‘Against Elections’ by Van Reybrouck, mentioned in OP.
It seems that you (and I suppose many with you) have accepted global warming of considerably more than 2°C, where I am still (in your view, I assume, naïvely) looking for ways to avoid that.
I think it’s striking how most people seem to treat our current behavior and desires and habits as a given, an unchangeable fact (this for instance also struck me reading Gates’ book); whereas I try to see the laws of physics, and its current ‘best effort’ implications regarding a maximum number of PPM of GHG in the atmosphere, as a given—and look for ways to stay below those thresholds using societal parameters—in this case, democracy.
Clearly in order to reach net zero emissions at some point, we need technological innovation and market forces. But if we want to stay well below 2°, preferably at 1,5°, waiting for those won’t cut it: during the coming decade(s), we would spend all of our remaining carbon budget to stay within those boundaries with some degree of certainty. Also, for 2050, all scenarios I’ve seen for my country Belgium include quite substantial behavioral changes on top of all (hoped for) technological changes. E.g.: https://klimaat.be/doc/climate-neutral-belgium-by-2050-report.pdf
In order to sufficiently reduce our emissions the coming decade(s), while working as quickly as possible on the technological advancements, we need behavioral changes. Sure enough, through current party-political means, this is unthinkable, as outlined above. Hence I propose here an alternative democratic tool which could help achieve doing what’s necessary. In principle, I currently don’t yet see a reason why this couldn’t work, on the time scale required: within a couple of years. It’s nothing more than an idea, a concept, for which I believe the time is ripe, which can spread extremely quickly. Technologically, it’s really not complex to implement, and practically it is also feasible. But of course, this is why I’m posting it here: it needs a lot more research and thinking, there are undoubtedly pitfalls which I haven’t yet thought of.
Indeed, every country will have to go through such a phase (presumably several iterations, e.g. every two or three years). By spreading the word of positive precedents, citizens and activists in all countries can demand them to be copied. It’s all a matter of spreading an idea. Even in autocratic regimes, the power of citizens is growing.
Although I understand that in the long run, the emissions still to be emitted by China, India and presumably large parts of Africa, through vast amounts of coal plants existing and still under construction, emissions this decade of ‘the West’ are on the same scale as those emitted by China and India—of the remaining carbon budget we’re depleting at 35 GT per year, we take an equal share. And given the Western living standard, it’s far easier (not to mention, given our historical weight in the problem, fairer, cfr. Hickel, 2020 [1]) for us to limit, through behavioral and consumption changes, e.g. the 15 tons/year CO2-footprint of the average American, than it would be to reduce the 7 tons/year CO2-footprint of a Chinese person through the same means.
It seems to me, in the long run, extremely, unthinkably unwise, for only just one human generation, to jeopardize the near-term future of humanity, the wellbeing of countless other conscious beings, and the stability of ecosystems in the coming decades, centuries, millennia, or longer. Just one generation has to make a ‘sacrifice’ (at least, something initially perceived as such, and promoted as such by certain political parties, lobbyists and other stakeholders) to stand a chance at staying well below 2° warming.
Of course, we need to let go of the gigantic misconceptions related to the effect of global warming on the economy, spread by Nordhaus et al (refuted by e.g. Keen, 2020 [2]), if we want to take seriously the importance of staying well below 2° warming...
Aside from the well described risks of more than 1,5° warming on the ecosystem, a factor which I believe is largely neglected is the potential social unrest caused by increasing polarization, precisely between those who want to make the behavioral changes to reduce our emissions the coming decade(s) and those who don’t… I believe new democratic tools, focussed on deliberation and participation, are the perfect antidode to such social unrest (and many other maladies of our time: reduced trust in politicians and democracy, general increasing polarization, the rise of fake news, etc) - read e.g. ‘Against Elections’ by Van Reybrouck, mentioned in OP.
[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30196-0/fulltext
[2] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1807856