None of those studies mention 1.5 million deaths. One of the studies estimating 500,000 deaths is cited as outlining a worst-case scenario. The most pessimistic estimate of 1 million deaths is conditional on no good evacuation plan being in place. More importantly, all of these studies were based on the dam’s condition before extensive repairs were carried out in 2016–2017—repairs that were undertaken to address just those safety concerns. As the Wikipedia article notes, “In May 2017, Iraqi Minister of Water Resources Hassan Janabi stated that no danger to the dam remained and it was going back to normal operation. Carlo Crippa, the project manager, said the dam structure now showed no significant signs of distress.”
None of those studies mention 1.5 million deaths. One of the studies estimating 500,000 deaths is cited as outlining a worst-case scenario. The most pessimistic estimate of 1 million deaths is conditional on no good evacuation plan being in place. More importantly, all of these studies were based on the dam’s condition before extensive repairs were carried out in 2016–2017—repairs that were undertaken to address just those safety concerns. As the Wikipedia article notes, “In May 2017, Iraqi Minister of Water Resources Hassan Janabi stated that no danger to the dam remained and it was going back to normal operation. Carlo Crippa, the project manager, said the dam structure now showed no significant signs of distress.”