Presumably they’ve already factored in the relative strength of bednets.
I don’t think this is relevant to GiveWell’s decision not to recommend AMF.… Immunisations are super-cost-effective, but GiveWell don’t make a recommendation in this area because GAVI or UNICEF or whoever already have committed funding for this.
I’ve got two choices if I want to donate all my donation money this year:
Donate to AMF, which is likely higher impact, but maybe my money won’t be spent for a couple of years.
Donate somewhere else, likely lower impact.
I think an AMF donation looks a pretty decent option here. I would say that the EA-controversial part of my thinking is the insistence on donating all my donation money this year, rather than using a donor-advised fund (to which I say, “Eh, whatevs...”).
You might say “well there’s a 50-percentage-point difference at each of those two steps” and think I’m being inconsistent in donating to AMF and not GAVI. But if I try some expectation-value-type calculation, I’ll be multiplying the impact of AMF’s work by 50% and getting something comparable to SCI, but getting something close to zero for GAVI.
I don’t think this is relevant to GiveWell’s decision not to recommend AMF.… Immunisations are super-cost-effective, but GiveWell don’t make a recommendation in this area because GAVI or UNICEF or whoever already have committed funding for this.
I’ve got two choices if I want to donate all my donation money this year:
Donate to AMF, which is likely higher impact, but maybe my money won’t be spent for a couple of years.
Donate somewhere else, likely lower impact.
I think an AMF donation looks a pretty decent option here. I would say that the EA-controversial part of my thinking is the insistence on donating all my donation money this year, rather than using a donor-advised fund (to which I say, “Eh, whatevs...”).
So why not donate to immunizations, then?
AMF is far more likely to need the money soon than GAVI.
But SCI is far more likely to need the money soon than AMF.
Probability that they’ll need my money soon:
GAVI: ~0%
AMF: ~50%
SCI: ~100%
You might say “well there’s a 50-percentage-point difference at each of those two steps” and think I’m being inconsistent in donating to AMF and not GAVI. But if I try some expectation-value-type calculation, I’ll be multiplying the impact of AMF’s work by 50% and getting something comparable to SCI, but getting something close to zero for GAVI.