I’m aware of at least two efforts to run table top exercises on AI takeoff with decision makers so I don’t think this is particularly neglected, but I do think it’s valuable.
What makes you think it isn’t neglected? I.e. what makes there being two efforts mean it isn’t neglected? Part of me wonders whether many national governments should consider such exercises (but I wouldn’t want to take it to military, only to have them become excited by capabilities).
Building on this: the folks behind Intelligence Rising actually published a paper earlier this month, titled ‘Strategic Insights from Simulation Gaming of AI Race Dynamics’. I’ve not read it myself, but it might address some of your wonderings, @yanni. Here’s the abstract:
We present insights from ‘Intelligence Rising’, a scenario exploration exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay. Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the destabilising effects of AI races, the crucial role of international cooperation in mitigating catastrophic risks, the challenges of aligning corporate and national interests, and the potential for rapid, transformative change in AI capabilities. We highlight places where we believe the game has been effective in exposing participants to the complexities and uncertainties inherent in AI governance. Key recurring gameplay themes include the emergence of international agreements, challenges to the robustness of such agreements, the critical role of cybersecurity in AI development, and the potential for unexpected crises to dramatically alter AI trajectories. By documenting these insights, we aim to provide valuable foresight for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers navigating the complex landscape of AI development and governance.
I’m aware of at least two efforts to run table top exercises on AI takeoff with decision makers so I don’t think this is particularly neglected, but I do think it’s valuable.
Good to know:
Can you share more about these efforts?
What makes you think it isn’t neglected? I.e. what makes there being two efforts mean it isn’t neglected? Part of me wonders whether many national governments should consider such exercises (but I wouldn’t want to take it to military, only to have them become excited by capabilities).
I don’t know if this is what Caleb had in mind, but Intelligence Rising is in this genre I think.
Building on this: the folks behind Intelligence Rising actually published a paper earlier this month, titled ‘Strategic Insights from Simulation Gaming of AI Race Dynamics’. I’ve not read it myself, but it might address some of your wonderings, @yanni. Here’s the abstract: